Turkey Reaffirms Desire to Join the European Union - will This Time be More Fruitful Than the Past?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (left) and French President Emmanuel Macron (right) have been at odds over French response to Islamic Terrorism and the ongoing civil war in Libya. In light of Turkey’s recent bid into the EU, both men have verbally agreed to cooperate, but much action is left to be done between the two rivals. Source: BBC

Recently, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made public pitches for the nation’s admission to the European Union (EU)  -- calling it an “ontological choice for the [European] union,” and stating that Turkey sees itself as an “inseparable part of Europe.” An influential NATO ally, Turkey has sought membership into the EU since 2005, and the country has been a member of NATO since 1952. Yet accession negotiations to join the EU -- which began in 2005 -- have followed a cycle of slow progress and disappointment. Along the way, Turkey has been at odds with several EU nations (and sometimes the entire EU), with two of the most notable countries being France and Greece. So, the question the international community and world order asks itself is: How, if at all, will Turkey’s current push to join the EU now engender results any differently than before?

Turkish Conflicts with Greece and France

At the end of 2020, tensions between Greece and Turkey amplified as both were in a territorial dispute over the region of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. In September 2020, Turkey began drilling for natural gas off of the coasts of the internationally recognized Greek territories of Crete and the Dodecanese Islands. This is an especially tender spot for Greece, as the nation found natural gas reserves in the region in 2015, representing some hope of economic respite to help Greece climb out of the economic depression it has been in since the crash of 2008. Additionally, Turkey attempted to annex Greek islands in the Aegean Sea and has threatened Greece with military action if the nation blocks Turkey’s access to the Aegean Sea by extending their exclusive economic zone by two additional miles. 

The history of the animosity between Greece and Turkey extends as far back as 1453, when the Ottoman Empire -- the predecessor of Turkey -- reigned over Greece and much of Europe after the Ottomans unseated the Byzantine Empire. Since then, multiple wars have raged between Turkey and Greece, including the Greco-Turkish wars of 1897 and 1921-1922. Most recently, Turkey successfully invaded Cyprus in 1974, and attempted invasions of Greek islands in 1996. The history of intense fighting between the two nations has solidified religious tensions between the Greek Orthodox Church and Islam -- Turkey’s most prominent religion -- mirroring the predominatly Christian EU’s sometimes awkward and hesitant cultural relationship with Turkey. 

Turkey’s conflict between France is even more entangled. It has been ongoing for the better half of the decade, and pain points range from religious animosity towards Muslims in France to the current proxy war in Libya. This past October, in response to French President Emanuel Macron’s critical comments on Muslims in France practicing “Islamist separatism,” President Erdoğan challenged the mental state of President Macron and called for a boycott of French goods and products. President Erdoğan went further, going so far as to criticize the entire EU and calling its leaders “fascists in the true meaning of the world. . . veritably the link in the Nazi chain.”

Aside from religious dispute, the greatest source of agitation between the two countries has been the current civil war in Libya. Since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, which saw longtime Libyan leader Muammar al-Gadafi ousted and killed, Libya hasstruggled to build and sustain a democratic government and its state institutions. The eastern and western parts of the country formed their own separate governments and have been at war with each other to gain governmental control of the entire country. Both Turkey and the United Nations have backed the Tripoli-based Libyan government in the West, while France and President Emmanuel Macron have backed the Libyan National Army leader, General Khalifa Haftar, in the East of Libya -- although France has toned down its support for General Haftar, declaring itself neutral, after taking criticism for being the only European nation to support General Haftar. This is one of the few facets in which the EU and Turkey are unequivocally on the same side. It’s reported that one western diplomat said France is “embarrassed because once again they made a mistake. Faced with this mistake, they have to justify it and they blame Turkey [for Turkey’s military intervention in Libya].” Another European diplomat said that Turkey helped “stopped (sic) the fall of Tripoli. Without their intervention, it would have been a humanitarian disaster.”

France has given substantial support to the Libyan National Army (LNA) while Turkey and the rest of the EU has supported the Government of National Accord (GNA) -- with Turkey intervening heavily to keep the Libyan capital of Tripoli safe from “humanitarian crisis.”   Graphic: Al Arabyia

But relations between France and Turkey are beginning to take a positive turn as President Erdoğan attempts to mend fences and show that Turkey is a willing and cooperative partner that the EU will benefit from by adding Turkey to its membership. Al Jazeera reported on January 15th, 2021 that Macron and Erdogan have begun to reconcile by each exchanging letters -- with President Erdoğan apologizing to President Macron for harshly reprimanding him last year over his comments on Muslims and terrorism in France, while President Macron responded by emphasizing the important role Turkey plays in Europe and the need for collaboration between Turkey and France on “bilateral consultations, terrorism, regional issues such as Syria and Libya, and a partnership on education,” as detailed by a Turkish official. Repairing relations with France, one of the top leaders of the EU, is a must for Turkey if the nation is to join the EU. 

Let’s Dream: What Turkey Joining the EU Would Mean

The benefits of Turkey joining the EU, if both sides trust and cooperate well with the other, are substantial. Geographically, Turkey holds a strategically important location as a bridge to the Middle East and Asia, allowing for the EU to expand its outreach. This would not only further the EU’s economic ties to both regions, but provide the bloc greater security --  especially against Russia. This is already what makes Turkey such an important NATO ally, as they have the capability to place strategic missile defenses to counter any Russia offense. Turkey, knowing this well, plans to push the U.S. and the Biden Administration to allow Turkey entry into the F-35 Jet Program: a U.S. Department of Defense international security initiative. And economically, Turkey could help mitigate the financial losses the EU may incur as a result of Brexit; it is estimated that Turkey would bring in about 75 million new consumers to the EU market. Finally, Turkey joining the EU would be a major step in mending the longstanding historical tensions dating back to the Ottoman Empire between East and West Europe, as a majority Muslim country joining the EU would give credibility to other secular majority Muslim nations seeking to join the international world order. 

Of course, these are best-case scenarios. A Turkish entry into the EU may be seen as a threat to the EU’s existing power structure, especially in the eyes of France. As aforementioned, Turkey has important military leverage in the region, and its population dwarfs every country in Europe except Russia. It could be seen that Turkish membership in the EU is a political, military, and economic powerplay that will increase instability. All of these are speculations, as both sides have not been honest with each other in their actions and intentions. 

Moving forward, whatever chances that Turkey has for joining the EU hinge on President Erdoğan’s ability to mend ties with EU nations from past tensions, starting with one of the EU’s most powerful leaders in France. This becomes especially prudent as the EU is currently in the process of outlining sanctions on Turkish individuals as a response to Turkey drilling in the Greek recognized territory in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Since 2005, talks of peace, unity and reconciliation have been abundant and cheap -- it’s time for the actions of leaders on both sides to be congruent to their words.