Iran Increases Nuclear Enrichment Activities
Iran begins increasing its uranium enrichment to 20% on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death as Biden nominates former JCPOA negotiators to key national security positions. Source.
On December 1, the Parliament of Iran passed a bill that gave the European nations a month to lift crippling oil and banking sanctions. Without sanction relief, Iran threatened to kick out UN nuclear inspectors, increase uranium enrichment to 20%, and install new centrifuges (necessary for uranium enrichment) at two prominent nuclear sites, Natanz and Fordo. The month has passed and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Iran has informed them that it will indeed begin uranium enrichment at Fordo to 20%, the threshold for what is considered highly enriched uranium.
To make a nuclear weapon, the concentration of the isotope U-235 must be increased from 0.7% to 90% in a process known as enrichment. Iran had previously enriched its uranium to 4% at the Fordo site, close to the typical level for commercial nuclear power plants. Uranium enriched to 20% fuels research reactors and the threshold for weapons-grade uranium is 90%. However, the increase of uranium concentration to 20% is significant. Most of the energy and effort needed to enrichment uranium is at the beginning of the process. The jump from 0.7% to 4% requires 83.5% of the total effort needed to get to weapons grade uranium. Only 8% of the total enrichment effort separates highly enriched uranium from weapons grade, which can be used to build a nuclear weapon.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, Germany, and Iran in 2015 had capped Iran’s enrichment levels at 3.67% and halted enrichment activity at the Fordo plant. When the United States pulled out of the JCPOA under President Trump in 2018, Iran began its enrichment efforts again. However, it has not tried to reach 20% until now, making it’s announcement on the anniversary of the drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
In response to Iran’s declaration the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, tweeted “Israel will not allow Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons." This proclamation came just two months after Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused Israel for the death of one of its top nuclear scientists. Israel has long threatened military attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. In 2010 the U.S. and Israel together conducted a successful cyberattack, planting a worm known as Stuxnet that caused centrifuges to fail at the Natanz facility. A series of explosions over the summer of 2020 at various Iranian facilities, including Natanz, are speculated to be the work of the Israel intelligence community and led to increased tensions between the two states.
As President-Elect Biden comes into office, a few notable members of his national security picks have experience with U.S.-Iranian relations. Wendy Sherman, the nominee to be the Deputy Secretary of State, was the lead negotiator of the JCPOA. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the nominee for the head of the CIA William Burns were heavily involved in the early, secret talks that produced the precursor to the JCPOA. The emphasis on bringing people in that have experience with U.S.-Iran relations speaks to the continued importance of this country.
The enrichment decision from Tehran and Israel’s potential retaliation will require immediate attention for the incoming Biden administration. Whether or not to return to the JCPOA will be hotly debated. Even if the U.S. would like to rejoin, it is unclear if Iran would even be willing to negotiate again.