US’ Recognition of Gonzalez Forces Latin American Nations to Take a Stand on Venezuelan Election Turmoil

Venezuelan President Edmundo Gonzalez are welcomed by supporters in Valencia, Venezuela. Source: Reuters via Gaby Oraa

On November 19th, U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, officially recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the Venezuelan President-elect through the social media site X, formerly known as Twitter. In the post, Bliken said, “The Venezuelan people spoke resoundingly on July 28th and made @Emundo GU the president-elect.” This recognition comes in spite of continued claims made by President Nicolas Maduro that he won the election. The recognition of Gonzalez as President-elect by the United States has forced Latin American states to choose between supporting Maduro or joining the United States in challenging his legitimacy. While governments neighboring Venezuela have started to become critical of the election results, there is little chance that Maduro will step down as president. Top generals within the Venezuelan military still support Maduro, allowing him to use the armed forces to suppress any challenge to his rule. 

Aside from condemning interference with the election results, Blinken sent a clear message to other Latin American states in the region: take a stand against Maduro and openly support Gonzalez. Latin American leftist leaders like Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico, and Gustavo Petro of Colombia have all demonstrated a willingness to work with Maduro by engaging in talks to reduce tariffs between the nations. However, Blinken’s recent statement has slowed down the efforts of these nations to foster relations with Venezuela. President Petro has transitioned from dialogues with Maduro to describing the recent election as a “mistake.” While leftist leaders are reluctant to recognize Gonzalez, the actions of the U.S. State Department have created tension between Venezuela and the leftist community of Latin America. 

The gradual shift made by Petro and other Latin American leaders on Maduro can be explained by increasing economic competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Leaders in the Chinese government have been attempting to offset economic setbacks experienced during COVID-19 by placing more importance on increasing its exportation of manufactured products to regions like Latin America. Being a major economic competitor, the Biden Administration has made efforts to increase American supply chains in Latin America to limit a growing Chinese influence in the region. While developing a stronger relationship with China seems like an attractive proposition for several Latin American states, the United States still has a definitive presence in the region. For example, the United States is a majority shareholder in the Inter-American Development Bank, a financial organization that funds Latin American public work projects. Economic ties between the United States and Latin American states have existed for decades, while attempts made by the Chinese government to influence Latin American markets have only been made recently. Leaders of South and Central American governments realize that this definitive presence makes the United States more reliable as a trade partner, and any attempt made by the Chinese government to foster economic relations will only make the United States more eager to solidify its presence in the region. However, the refusal of Latin American leaders to condemn Maduro will make it less likely for the Biden Administration to engage in renewed efforts to increase supply chains in Latin America in order to compete with the Chinese government.

The combination of these efforts as well as an already dominant economic presence in the region has made Latin American states weary of committing to any relationships not supported by their largest economic backer, the United States. This has led many of these nations to cast public doubts on the legitimacy of the recent Venezuelan election. However, the pressure placed by the U.S. alone will not force Latin American states to renounce Venezuelan relations due to common interests in reducing tariffs; nor will it force regime change within Venezuela. 

This is not the first time that Maduro has falsified election results. In the 2013 presidential election, opponent Henrique Capriles made allegations of voter fraud and intimidation. The government quickly denied any claims of fraud once Maduro took power. A similar situation happened in the 2018 presidential election when opposition leader Henry Falcón made similar claims after Maduro declared victory. Maduro’s record of denying election results leaves little hope for the Venezuelan people to see Maduro step down as president. The Venezuelan constitution does outline an avenue for removing a president whose power is illegitimate. A referendum vote must be called where the number of votes supporting the removal of the president must be greater than the number of votes that elected the president. This method of removal is not likely to work under the Maduro regime since the military has often been used to intimidate voters and polling places, making a referendum vote extremely difficult.        

The post made by Blinken is merely a statement, and the recent history of election fraud gives little reason to believe that Maduro will leave office. Opposition from the United States has not done much in the past to affect the control that Maduro has over the Venezuelan election process. The interest of states like Colombia and Brazil in reducing tariffs against Venezuelans has been a positive development for Maduro and is not likely to help challenge his legitimacy. However, the reaction of the United States does have serious implications for other Latin American states. Progressive violations of Venezuelan voter rights as well as the opening of new supply chains by the United States are forcing Latin American states to take a stand by publicly releasing statements that recognize Gonzalez, no matter how limited it may be, and question Maduro’s regime.