North Carolina and US Experienced Decreased Voter Turnout in 2024
A polling place in Asheville, North Carolina during early voting for the 2024 general election. Source: Stephanie Scarbrough via AP.
In the 2024 general election, North Carolina overall experienced decreased voter turnout compared to record numbers in 2020. National trends reflect a similar slight decrease in voter turnout this year, with a one-percent reduction between 2020 and 2024. Orange County evaded such a decrease and voter turnout was nearly the same as in 2020. Of eligible voters in Orange County, 76.21% turned out for the election this year, in comparison with 76% in 2020. In 2020, UNC was recognized for exceptional voter turnout with over 82% of students casting a vote. 2024 data is not yet available. It is possible that confusion over acceptable forms of ID deterred some student voters. In late September, not a month before early voting began, the NC Court of Appeals ruled that UNC mobile One Cards could not be used as voter ID, reversing the previous decisions of an NC judge and the State Board of Elections. Students had been told they could use their mobile One Card to vote. In the wake of the Court of Appeals decision, students had to request the printing of hard-copy One Cards. Students are now only automatically given mobile One Cards when they enroll at UNC.
Expectedly, Orange County remained a blue stronghold this year. Vice President Kamala Harris won 74.6% of the vote. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein garnered nearly 80% of the vote. Orange County is not reflective of the rest of the state, though. Donald Trump won North Carolina by 3.3 percentage points and over 180,000 votes. Orange County was one of twenty-two blue counties out of a hundred total counties.
Over 250,000 fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina voted early or by absentee ballot in 2024 versus 2020. The large number of absentee ballots requested in 2020 is likely due to COVID-19 and fears of contracting the virus. By contrast, Republican early or absentee voting increased by over 30,000 votes. The Trump campaign made a sharp pivot toward encouraging early voting this year, demonstrating a drastic change from 2020 messaging.
In the lead-up to the election, Democrats and Republicans alike feared that third-party candidates would seize enough undecided or independent votes to make a dent in the success of a major party candidate. Both parties held their breath in battleground states, dreading the so-called “protest vote” for candidates like Jill Stein or Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. However, the third-party vote share was lower this year than in 2016 and 2020. Some suspect that R.F.K. Jr.’s sharp pivot from third-party candidate to staunch Trump ally (and now, Trump’s nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services) garnered votes for the Republican party from independent voters. After his loss in 2020, Trump built a wide-ranging coalition of voters and allies. Trump made particular gains among Hispanic and Black voters. While the majority of both groups still voted for Vice President Harris, Trump made inroads this year. The president-elect’s newfound coalition likely emerged from a combination of political shifts among young voters and Black and Hispanic men.
It is not entirely surprising that voter turnout was lower this year. In 2020, the country faced an unprecedented global pandemic that sent Americans into a period of inflation, unemployment, quarantine, and uncertainty. Some moved through the pandemic with relatively minor shifts to remote education and work; others, though, lost loved ones, faced crippling mental health effects, and struggled to maintain any sense of economic or personal normalcy. Americans turned out in record numbers and elected President Joe Biden in a sharp rebuke to former President Trump’s handling of COVID-19. In the fall of 2020, the American COVID-19 death toll surpassed 200,000. The international death toll exceeded one million. 35% of Americans rated healthcare as their top issue in the 2020 election. In 2024, Harris warned of the deterioration of democracy if Trump were elected. Voters were apparently more concerned with the economy and immigration. Ambiguous concepts of democracy and America’s founding principles did not resonate in the same way promises to secure the border and improve the economy did.
Voter turnout suffered in the 2024 election. Still, voting in every election is an important exercise of civic duty. While often neglected, midterms present a powerful opportunity for the nation to provide feedback on the current state of the government. Approximately half of eligible voters turned out for the 2022 midterms, compared to about 66% in the 2020 general election. Upcoming midterms will occur on November 3, 2026.