Estonian Intelligence Report: Russia Hopes COVID-19 Crisis Will Weaken the West

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting of the Federal Security Service (FSB) board in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021. Source: AP.

Last Wednesday, Estonia’s foreign intelligence agency claimed that Russia is counting on COVID-19 to weaken unity in the West. The Kremlin allegedly hopes to gain a more prominent role on the international stage through this weakening of Western global influence caused by COVID-19 disunity. 

According to the Estonian report, Russian officials believe that the pandemic will force Western nations to focus on domestic policy and economic issues. If these traditionally internationalist powers, such as the UK and US, resort to an inward political focus, it could spell a precipitous decline in globalism as a policy project. The Kremlin allegedly believes that the emergence of populist and extremist movements would follow such a phenomenon. 

The authors of the 79-page document out of Estonia claim that Russia’s current strategy is to engineer smear campaigns against foreign adversaries. Specifically, Russia plans to smear the COVID-19 vaccine developed in Western countries. The vaccine developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca has been particularly targeted, Russian propaganda going as far as to dub the vaccine as a “monkey vaccine.” The report states that the smear campaigns have two main goals: firstly, Russia hopes to create a more favorable position for its own vaccines in the market; secondly, the smear campaigns bolster Russia’’s aim to appear as the first among major powers to provide a solution to the COVID-19 crisis.  

Russia did not offer an immediate response to Estonia's intelligence report. Historically, Western nations have made reports with claims of Russian foul-play in a similar manner to those of Estonia’s claims, and Russia has repeatedly denied those claims. 

Is Russia justified in believing that COVID will weaken the West? There is evidence from the United States and Europe that supports this view. In the U.S., initial responses to the virus varied from state-to-state largely due to partisan divides. States with Democratic governors were more likely to declare emergencies, close schools, place limits on bars and restaurants, and halt non-essential business. States with Repulican governors were more likely to downplay the threat of the virus and less eager to halt businesses from operating. Partisan lines divide the opinions of citizens as well. More Democrats told pollsters that they were “extremely concerned” about COVID-19 than Republicans, to the tune of a 20 point margin.

Even to suggest that the very existence of the EU is threatened by COVID-19 could hold some merit. Former European Commission President Jacques Delors claimed that if the EU failed to unite in this public health disaster, the Union would face its greatest crisis yet. One of the key ideas of the EU is free movement, yet this idea was cast aside member states closed down their borders shortly after the outbreak. Likewise, several member states moved quickly to prioritize national interests by imposing prohibitions on the exportation of important medical supplies. When Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission President, called for a discussion on an exit strategy from the lockdowns, she was met with significant criticism from the worst-hit countries, notably France. 

Even in times of global crisis, political strategy continues to brew. If Estonian officials are to be believed, Russia hopes that COVID will create a weaker West, and considering the current state of the EU and the U.S., they may just be correct.