How the Trump Administration Put the Open Skies Treaty at Risk - and How it Might be Saved

The Open Skies Treaty is a multilateral agreement among major military powers to permit controlled arial flyovers and data collection between member states. Source.

When the Open Skies Treaty came into effect in 2002, it was heralded as a dramatic move towards transparency and enhancing mutual confidence across treaty members. The treaty promoted a policy of mutual aerial observation, where its twenty-six member states - including the US, Russia, the UK, Germany, and others - could fly unarmed surveillance flights over other members. Each party to the Open Skies treaty has an “active quota” - the number of flights it is allowed to conduct over other parties - and a “passive quota” - the number of overflights that it must accept. Before an Open Skies flight, aircraft are inspected and personnel from the country to be overflown are let on to the plane. Any data collected on flights is open to all members of the treaty, collectively building a larger collection of aerial imagery than any single country would be able to compile on its own. The treaty was first proposed by Eisenhower in 1955 before being picked back up again by George H.W. Bush in 1989. By 2019, more than 1,500 overflights had been conducted through the Open Skies Treaty. Tensions began when Russia violated the treaty by preventing flights over the Kaliningrad enclave as well as Russian-controlled areas of Georgia. In turn, the US began restricting Russian flights over Alaska. Otherwise, the treaty continued to function normally. 

However, in May 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US would leave the Open Skies Treaty in six months if Russia did not come in full compliance with the treaty. This move was criticized by NATO allies as well as US Democrats. European Union foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell commented on the matter, "withdrawing from a treaty is not the solution to address difficulties in its implementation and compliance by another party." While U.S. Representative Eliot Engel (D-NY), then-chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, argued that withdrawing from the treaty was illegal, given the White House did not give Congress 120 days’ notice.

In November 2020, the United States officially left the Open Skies Treaty to the chagrin of its allies. European states feared that with the US leaving, Russia might withdraw as well - stopping aerial imaging of Russia and ending the usefulness of the Open Skies Treaty. In January 2021, Russia’s Foreign Ministry released a statement that Russia would begin the process of leaving the treaty, citing the US withdrawal. However, at this point, Russia has not submitted any of the required formal notices to treaty member-states. 

Now with a new president in the White House, the Open Skies Treaty might be saved. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov - after talks with the current chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) - indicated that Russia is ready to come to the bargaining table. “If the United States fully returns to observing the treaty, the Russian Federation would be ready to constructively consider that new situation,” Lavrov said. 

The Biden administration has not released a position on the Open Skies Treaty, but according to the Kremlin, the issue was discussed during the president’s phone call with Putin. Even if Biden would like to re-enter the agreement, there is disagreement among legal scholars over whether he would be able to take on that action himself or need Congress’ approval. 

The Open Skies Treaty has gone from one of the most effective treaties in creating transparency and some semblance of trust across the international community to one that is now standing on its last legs. Even though he has left the White House, Donald Trump’s foreign policy still stands as an obstacle to international cooperation today. The end of the Open Skies Treaty has the potential to erode global security as tensions with Russia continue to rise. For now, the ball is in President Biden’s court - if the US can rejoin the treaty it would be seen by NATO allies and the OSCE as a step towards a multilateral foreign policy as opposed to Trump’s “America First” mindset.