Continuity or Change? An Early Look at the Biden Administration’s Policy on China

Then-Vice President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. Source.

Under the Trump Administration, U.S.-China relations took a remarkable downturn culminating in a trade war, accusation of genocide, and an attempted ban on social media apps such as TikTok and WeChat. Many expected the Biden Administration to follow in President Obama’s legacy of the pursuit of cooperation with Beijing and military restraint. However, indications from the first month have shown that there might be more continuity in U.S.-China policy than previously imagined. 

Some of President Biden’s cabinet picks have signaled that many Trump-era policies governing relations with Beijing are not going anywhere. Biden conspicuously chose not to overturn any of the tariffs in his initial round of executive orders. Secretary of State Blinken stated, unprompted, in his confirmation hearings that President Trump “was right to take a tougher approach on China” and supported former Secretary of State Pompeo’s declaration of genocide. 

In her confirmation hearing, Secretary of the Treasury Yellen also accused China of “undercutting American companies” and “stealing intellectual property” while deeming Beijing as the U.S. “most important strategic competitor.” She also stated that China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslims constituted “horrendous human rights abuses”The Secretary of Commerce has also stated her agreement with the decision to keep Chinese tech company Huawei on a list designating it as a risk to U.S. national security or policy interests.

In the first few weeks, the U.S. military has maintained its presence in the South China Sea, another contentious issue between Washington and Beijing. Various islands and rocks in the South China Sea are claimed by multiple countries, including China. According to the UN Convention Laws of the Sea, these features grant the country it is a part of certain privileges in the waters surrounding the island or rock. The U.S. (and its allies) use Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge what it views as excessive maritime claims. FONOPs in the context of the South China Sea are when military ships behave as they would legally in international waters but in territorial seas claimed by China. In doing so, the U.S. signals that it disagrees with the sovereignty claim by disregarding the laws that would generally apply to territorial waters and instead behaving as if they were in international waters. Under President Trump, the U.S. military increased its FONOPs in the South China Sea dramatically, a trend that has continued in the first month of the Biden Administration. 

On February 4, a U.S. carrier strike group conducted a FONOP through the Taiwan Strait, days after China sent bombers, fighter jets, and anti-submarine aircraft over its self-declared air defense identification zone. On February 9, two U.S. carrier strike groups conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea for the first time since July. These two actions again signaled a continuation of a tougher stance on China’s maritime claims and prompted praise from President Trump’s former national security advisor, Robert O’Brien.

The FONOP after the Taiwan air defense identification zone overflight is particularly notable. China and Taiwan have a complicated history as China views Taiwan as a breakaway province while Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign nation. While the U.S. does not officially have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, however it has been a historic friend and ally. Biden’s response to the Chinese overflight was stronger than many expected. Both the spokeswoman for the National Security Council and the State Department released statements in support of Taiwan, blaming Beijing for inflaming tensions. Despite apprehension from many of the Taiwanese that Biden would not be as strong of an ally as Trump was, his actions in the first month have signalled otherwise. 

However, there will certainly be differences in the ways the Biden Administration will approach China. When asked about the issue specifically, President Biden responded that in contrast to his predecessor, he would “focus on the international rules of the road.” In the confirmation hearing in which Blinken signaled his support for Trump's tougher approach to China, he also stated his disagreement “with the way that he went about it in a number of areas.” Blinkin explicitly pointed to the importance of regional and global allies, a key change from President Trump’s mostly unilateral policy decisions. Biden argued that when the U.S. decides to “pull back, China fills in.” 

There are two primary, short term issues the U.S. might choose to cooperate with China on throughout the administration despite drastic differences in opinion over intellectual property, Huawei, Taiwan, and South China Sea. Climate change is the main issue in which the U.S. and China could cooperate on, following the Obama Administration’s footsteps. The two competitors might also work together as the world figures out vaccine distribution and economic assistance for developing countries as the COVID-19 virus continues to wreak havoc. 

Early indications from President Biden and his secretaries is that U.S.-China policy will be more similar to his predecessor’s than many had initially anticipated. He will likely look more to allies and international agreements for leverage, however, thus far has not taken steps to roll back the trade war tariffs, blacklisting Huawei, and has continued conducting FONOPs in defiance of Beijing’s stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea. Climate change and COVID-19 recovery might provide a basis for cooperation, but the areas of contention are not dissipating anytime soon.