Israel and the UAE: A Proxy Peace
Trump Administration Senior Adviser Jared Kushner, UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash and Israel's National Security Advisder Meir Ben Shabbat meeting in Abu Dhabi on August 31, 2020. Source.
After the opening of diplomatic ties between the UAE and Israel this August, Senior Advisor Jared Kushner made a visit to a UAE air base this week to facilitate the signing ceremony of this landmark deal. Kushner has been cast as the primary representative of the U.S. in this peace deal, and his presence at the ceremony comes as no surprise as the U.S. seeks to achieve a favorable peace in the Middle East. The UAE is only the third Arab nation to extend diplomatic recognition to Israel, and has done so in return for an Israeli promise to suspend annexation efforts in the West Bank.
Many of the reasons for this renewed effort at detente between Israel and the Arab nations, who have historically been staunch geopolitical adversaries, come as part of a containment strategy against Iranian influence in the Middle East. In a sense, this deal is simply a public acknowledgment of the behind-the-scenes cooperation that has been staged between the UAE and Israel over the past few decades, though its gravity in changing the landscape of Arab-Israeli geopolitics cannot be overstated.
Reactions to the deal have been sharply polarized amongst many nations. Nations with traditionally strong ties to the U.S. and Israel, such as the UK and France, have issued statements welcoming the deal as important in achieving a pragmatic peace in the Middle East. Other Arab nations, including those who may follow in normalizing relations, have also displayed optimism at this development. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Ashekanzi, the Foreign Minister of Oman expressed his support for the deal and the need to further strengthen Oman-Israel cooperation. Egypt, which has recognized Israel since the US-mediated Camp David Accords in 1979, also backed the deal. UAE allies Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have also agreed to allow UAE-Israel flights to cross their airspace, and displayed cautious optimism.
Despite the enmity and conflict that characterized Arab-Iraeli relations in the 20th century, animosity is fading as Arab nations face the realities of the coming years. The outright rejection of Israel is slowly turning into a reluctant acceptance, despite ongoing concern regarding Israeli activities against the Arab League recognized state of Palestine. This may take a backseat as Iran continues to exert its influence in the region, however. The many proxy wars being waged between Arab nations and Iran continue to threaten the peace of the region, with both sides funding militant groups in conflicts ranging from the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 to the current civil wars in Yemen and Syria.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has condemned the deal, going as far as to say the UAE will be “disgraced forever”. Aside from their stated commitment to Palestinean rights, Iran stands to lose the most from renewed cooperation between the Arab nations and Israel. The UAE is one of Iran’s top trading partners, and the normalization of relations would be the first step in furthering trade ties between Israel and the UAE. Continued military cooperation between Israel and Arab nations would be directly harmful to Iran-sponsored proxy groups, such as Hezbollah, who have been condemned by both the Arab League and Israel. It remains to be seen what the deal’s long-term consequences will be for unrest in this war-torn region.