In wake of Beirut Explosion, Macron Tests the Limits of His Influence

French President Emmanuel Macron at the port of Beirut on September 1. Source.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron made his second visit to Lebanon since last month’s massive explosion in Beirut. While Lebanon is still reeling from the aftermath of the blast, it also faces a worsening economic crisis and a surge in COVID-19 cases. This combination of crises has made it clear that Lebanon is in deep need of reform, despite world leaders considering Lebanon’s political system “untouchable.” During last week’s visit, Macron challenged this notion, and threatened to withhold international aid unless reforms are pushed through.

Macron’s push for reforms comes amidst an unprecedented economic crisis in Lebanon—the result of decades of corruption and frivolous spending. The Lebanese Pound has lost nearly 85% of its value, which has resulted in ballooning prices and a shortage of goods. Many economists fear that a situation similar to Venezuela’s collapse is unfolding. Despite this, Lebanon’s political elite refuses to accept reforms that would open the country to international aid. In July, talks between Lebanon and the IMF stalled after the country’s political elite refused to seriously consider the reforms required by the IMF.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been at the forefront of the international effort to push through reforms in Lebanon. During his visit, he threatened Lebanon’s political elite with sanctions unless they accept anti-corruption measures. His critics argue that these measures are not enough due to the outsized influence that Iran has on the Lebanese political system. Macron has pushed back against this criticism—he believes he is doing everything within his ability to bring about reform without escalating the situation. Lebanon’s political elite—including Hezbollah, have so far seemed open to the prospect of reform. If these reforms are implemented, Macron promised to hold an aid conference at the end of October.

During the visit, Macron took an aside to plant a Lebanese Cedar, commemorating the 100th anniversary of Greater Lebanon’s founding. Greater Lebanon, the predecessor to the modern Lebanese state, was established as a French Mandate on September 1st, 1920. France’s colonial history places it in an important but murky position. It is unclear to what extent France should involve itself in Lebanon’s affairs—many have slammed Macron’s involvement as being overtly neocolonialist.

Despite these accusations, it is clear that the Lebanese political system is in deep need of reform. Decades of mismanagement and corruption, coupled with a ruling class that refuses to accept any changes, has resulted in the complete failure of Lebanon’s government. If the situation is not remedied, the Lebanese government is likely to face revolution—there have been widespread protests against government corruption since last October. Lebanon’s failing economy has only strengthened these protests and there are concerns that even reforms may not be enough to appease demonstrators. During his first visit to Beirut, Macron reassured these protesters that he will do everything he can until the situation in Lebanon is improved.  

Macron faces massive challenges in Lebanon—and he knows it. On his flight to Beirut, he told reporters: “It’s a risky bet I’m making, I am aware of it… I am putting the only thing I have on the table: my political capital.”