Tensions Simmer in the Eastern Mediterranean over Potential Oil Riches
August 23rd, 2019, Oruc Reis seismic research vessel docked at Haydarpasa port in Istanbul. Source.
This Tuesday, Greece will be holding live-fire military exercises off the southeast coast of the island of Crete, adding to rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
These exercises are in retaliation to a new seismic exploration mission from Turkey in disputed waters. Both Greece and Turkey claim rights to the maritime territory around Crete and other islands in the eastern Aegean, but no formal legal agreement exists defining the borders. The European Union recognizes de facto boundaries as defined through a European Union-commissioned map study - known as the Seville map - that creates favorable boundaries for Greece at Turkey’s expense. Ankara rejects these borders.
What was previously a local dispute over maritime borders between Greece and Turkey has become a matter of international interest after a 2010 study by the US Geological Survey estimated 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Levant Basin.
Turkey’s survey vessel -The Orus Reis - crossed into recognized Greek territory in early August. It was originally supposed to finish its mission last Monday, but on Saturday evening, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that it would remain in the region for another 90 days.
France, Italy, and Cyprus are now joining Greece’s naval exercises, and by doing so send a signal to Ankara regarding where their loyalties lie. The European Union largely supports Greece, but the question of whether or not to impose sanctions remains controversial among members. Heiko Maas - Germany’s foreign minister - warned that this escalation of tensions is “playing with fire.” Germany, currently holding the Presidency of the EU, has called for a halt to naval exercises but is reluctant to impose sanctions without attempted negotiations first. Other members such as France have called for immediate action. President Emmanuel Macron told the press that there must be sanctions “in the face of the Turkish violations of [Greek and Cyprian] sovereignty.”
Turkey’s relationship with the European Union is already rocky. Turkey applied to be a member in 2005 but subsequently refused to apply the Additional Protocol of the Ankara Association Agreement - an agreement with measures to be taken before Turkey can join the European Economic Area. As of June 2018, the General Affairs Council declared accession negotiations “effectively frozen.” Turkey’s relations with EU members and allies have deteriorated over recent years following military interventions in Syria and Libya, the purchasing of S-400 missile systems from Russia, and the repression of civil liberties in Turkey following a failed coup in 2016.
Tensions with Turkey have become commonplace over the past decade, but this recent escalation could cause the conflict to boil over. Turkish fighter jets - often armed - routinely violate Greek airspace, and confrontations between the two powers have been frequent. This week, with Greek war games taking place, that risk is only increased.
The European Union must face the fact that Turkey is unlikely to back down without at least some of its demands met. Turkey’s economy is in freefall, and its leaders have claimed that access to natural gas as well as a planned pipeline infrastructure would be a lucrative source of income. Last Wednesday, while speaking at an event celebrating the victory of the Ottoman Empire over the Byzantines in the 11th-century, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “[Turkey] will not compromise what is ours… We are determined to do whatever is necessary.”
However, Turkey has maintained its goal is “fair distribution” of water in the Mediterranean - and there is a point to be made there. The Seville map was drawn without Turkish consent or input. If Greece and Turkey are willing to compromise on maritime territory, conflict can be avoided. So far, both countries are defending their territorial claims but have said they are open to talks.
Is the European Union willing to let this conflict continue to escalate to protect unyielding Greek claims? Likely not. An informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers indicated a focus on opening dialogue and creating peace with Turkey to avoid conflict. Greece is going to have to compromise.
Diplomatic talks must begin sooner than later before the Mediterranean reaches a boiling point. Turkey and Greece are both NATO members, and the consequences of an armed conflict between them could shake the alliance.