Will North Carolina’s Youth Determine the Election?

Youth voters project to be a key demographic in North Carolina this election - and youth turnout is already way up. Source.

With the election just one day away, voter turnout has already been substantial with more than 60 million Americans already submitting their ballots. This may not seem that high considering the US population is over 300 million, but this number accounts for around 44% of all votes in 2016. Most importantly, North Carolina’s votes are considered key in this election.

North Carolina is a swing state which means it could be one of the deciding states in the presidential election. In fact, North Carolina has ranked as the fifth state most likely to tip the election. In other words, North Carolina could determine whether Donald Trump is reelected or if Democrats retake the White House with their candidate Joe Biden. North Carolina is not only critical in the presidential election, but also in determining the outcome of the Senate majority. Republicans are fighting to maintain their majority in the Senate and one of the seats at risk is North Carolina’s, currently held by Republican Thom Tillis. If Republicans were to lose this seat to Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham, they would be at a higher risk of losing the Senate majority overall.

This election has also shed light on how important and influential the young vote is, ages 18-29. As of October 21, 204,986 young people have voted, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). Significantly, by this time in 2016, only 25,150 young people had voted. To be fair, voting started five days earlier this year, but the influx in young votes is astounding nevertheless. North Carolina’s turnout is more impressive when in 2016 just over 714,000 young people voted across the US. As of now, over three million young people have voted nationally, two million of which have come from key battleground states, including North Carolina. Due to the number of young voters participating in this year’s election, CIRCLE has ranked North Carolina as the number two state in which voters could influence the outcome of the presidential election and ranked number four where voters could influence which party controls the Senate.

To put North Carolina’s young voter turnout into perspective, in 2016, the national average of young voter turnout was 38% while North Carolina’s young voter turnout was 45%. More than 55% of eligible young voters in North Carolina did not vote in the 2016 election, that number equates to about five times the margin by which Trump won North Carolina. It is clear that the young vote could easily have an impact on who wins the presidency. This could pose a problem for Trump especially since in 2016 most young voters favored Democrats (57%) over Republicans (35%). Furthermore, in a recent Harvard study, 63% of young voters have said they plan to vote for Biden over Trump. At the rate young voters are turning out, and if this adds up to more young people voting than in 2016, Biden could win the White House. 

Regarding the increase in voter turnout this year, it is important to note that all parties have experienced an increase in voters. Democrats have witnessed an increase in absentee ballots of 98% from 2016 and Republicans an increase of 95%. Many are wondering why there has been such an increase in voter turnout. Of course, more people have requested mail-in ballots due to the pandemic, but that does not answer the question as to why voter turnout has increased overall. It could be because more people simply want to participate in the election process, as a result of the increasing political tension, or due to a sense of urgency rising in the country exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. Both Democrats and Republicans have been at each others’ throats since the 2016 election and have polarized most voters. This election has motivated voters from all political ideologies to do what they can to fight for what they believe and make their voices heard. 

Regardless of the outcome, North Carolina will play a substantial role in the election process. Whether North Carolina will lean to the right or to the left remains to be seen, however, this election will likely be a window into the fate of future elections and reveal the impact and influence North Carolina voters can have.