How Will Redrawn Congressional Maps Affect the 2020 Election in North Carolina?
Greensboro voters line up to cast early ballots last week. Source.
As we enter the week of 2020 election, eyes across the country are on North Carolina. North Carolina is expected to be one of the closest swing states in the country and could be the difference between Donald Trump or Joe Biden winning the presidency. However, North Carolina also has a number of interesting and competitive races for the U.S House of Representatives that have been affected by a recent court-ordered redistricting after the old districts were determined to be illegally gerrymandered. The elections in these new districts could have a significant impact on both North Carolina and national politics while also providing a window to examine gerrymandering and its problems.
Gerrymandering is when a political party draws electoral districts in a way that will benefit that party. Oftentimes, these districts are drawn to keep blocks of certain voters in one district in a practice called “packing,” sometimes creating odd and twisting shapes for electoral districts. For example, in many states, districts are created to fit as many African American voters as possible into one district because many African American voters often vote Democrat. If the majority of African American voters are packed into one district, then it is likely to go blue in a landslide, in turn allowing more Republicans to win multiple surrounding districts. The state of North Carolina has a long history of gerrymandering districts rooted in white supremacy, dating back to the Reconstruction period after the Civil War. When voting rights for African Americans were enshrined in the 15th amendment of the Constitution, conservative Democrats in North Carolina put as many Republican voters as possible into the 2nd congressional district, leading it to be known as “the Black Second.” This practice continued throughout the 20th century.
Today, gerrymandering still occurs in North Carolina and is often the subject of heated debate and contentious court cases. After Republicans took control of the state legislature in 2010, they created new legislative and congressional districts under what is called the Rucho-Lewis Plan, which was heavily criticized by Democrats and outside groups. These maps, drawn in 2011, were ruled unconstitutional and made to be redrawn in 2016, again by the Republican legislature. However, in September of 2019, a North Carolina court ruled that these new congressional districts in place were also unconstitutional and needed to be redrawn before the 2020 election. The court found that the partisan gerrymanders took power away from voters in an unconstitutional manner, saying that “it is the carefully crafted maps, and not the will of the voters, that dictate the election outcomes” in many districts.
As we near the 2020 election, this redrawn congressional map is bound to have an important impact on the race for the U.S House. Under the new map, Democrats are favored to win two additional house seats, taking the Republican advantage in the North Carolina House delegation down from 10-3 to 8-5. For example, in the second district which was redrawn to include more of Wake County, Republican Representative George Holding is retiring and Democrat Deborah Ross is expected to win the seat in the upcoming election. Although a difference of two seats may not seem large, this swing may have a substantial effect over the race to control the House. The expected loss of two seats in North Carolina will make it even harder for Republican attempts to retake control of the House, where Democrats are favored to maintain control.
In the 2018 election, Republicans received 50.3 percent of the congressional popular vote in North Carolina, but controlled 76 percent (10 of 13) congressional districts, showing the extreme influence gerrymandering can have. It is likely these changes will more accurately reflect the preferences and votes of North Carolina voters than before, and this is a positive change. Beyond the 2020 election, the fight over gerrymandering and redistricting is far from over in North Carolina. After the census this year, North Carolina will likely have to redraw its congressional map again, as the state is expected to add a 14th house seat due to its increasing population. The results of state legislature and governor races this year will determine which party has the power to redraw these maps come 2022. So, the topic of gerrymandering and the drawing of electoral districts is bound to stay relevant, contentious, and politically important–both in North Carolina and in the United States–for years to come.