Turkey and Greece Resume Peaceful Negotiations as Pompeo Wraps up Mediterranean Visit
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, right, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis pose during their visit at the Naval Support Activity base at Souda, on the Greek island of Crete, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020. Source.
In early September, NATO members and long-time rivals Turkey and Greece mobilized their navies and warplanes and prepared to go to war in the eastern Mediterrean Sea. Tensions had been rising in Turkey and Greece for quite some time over Turkey’s exploration for natural gas on the island of Cyprus. EU members Greece and Cyprus both accused Turkey of violating international law with its “gunboat diplomacy.” Turkey defended its actions to pursue drilling opportunities in Cypriot waters by claiming that they had rights to those economic zones. The international response was divided: the President of Cyprus asked Russia to intervene in the hopes of de-escalating the conflict, while the rest of the EU was split over how to respond. Russia announced on September 8th that they would not intervene until both Turkey and Greece agreed that Russian involvement was necessary and that peaceful negotiations were possible. Greece refused to negotiate unless Turkey withdrew its warships and troops. The EU also considered imposing tougher sanctions on Turkey in the event the talks failed to end the standoff between the two nations.
Under mounting international pressure from the United States and Germany, Turkey pulled one of its vessels out of the Mediterrenan on September 18th, and both countries reduced their naval presence and halted military exercises. EU foreign ministers in Brussels portrayed Turkey’s partial withdrawal as a positive sign and a good starting point for negotiations between the two nations. Turkey and Greece participated in the 5th round of these negotiations at NATO on September 22nd. Due to diplomatic pressure from the United States and Germany, both Greece and Turkey consented to continue peaceful negotiations to draw maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Both nations also agreed to negotiate the possibility of outside intervention or referral to the international court in The Hague.
The deterioration of relations and escalating conflict between Greece and Turkey puts the United States in a somewhat precarious political position. Not only does the United States fear being forced to choose between its two NATO allies, its partnership with Turkey has been key to the Trump administration’s mission to defeat Shiite volunteer armies and other Iranian-led activities in Syria in support of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The United States also has a large air base in Incirlik, Turkey, where it stores strategic atomic weapons. As a result, the United States has allowed Germany to lead NATO’s efforts on the matter, and on September 29th, following a series of meetings and tours with Prime Minister Kyriskos Mitsotakis, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo expressed support for talks between Greece and Turkey. In his public comments yesterday, Mr. Pompeo was careful again to avoid allegiance to either ally, pledging U.S. support for the dialogue between Greece and Turkey, and “encourag[ing] them to resume discussion of these issues as soon as possible.” Mr. Pompeo further urged NATO’s support in building up the eastern Mediterranean Sea as a means to advance collaboration for the strong energy security and monetary success of the Mediterranean area.
The conflict also poses specific challenges for President Trump. In early 2019, President Trump began speaking publicly about the possibility of the United States exiting NATO and has continued to make this topic part of his re-election campaign in 2020. The New York Times has speculated that, while Congress would presumably hinder Trump's push to pull back from the partnership, he might pursue different measures to subvert it. For example, in 2017 Trump declined to affirm the mutual aid clause in Article 5 of NATO, and claimed that other nations didn't commit enough financial support for NATO. It’s been speculated that Trump may even announce his goal to pull back from NATO this month to appeal to his nationalist base and bolster his bid for re-election. The recent agreement between Turkey and Greece to resume peaceful negotiations and halt military activity could, however, undermine this campaign tactic. NATO’s ability to advance productive negotiations between the historically hostile nations could affirm its significant value as a player on the global stage and make Trump’s threat to withdraw from NATO be seen as dangerous by American voters.