Political Survival is a Promise, Not a Guarantee: Canadian PM Mark Carney Calls Snap Election

American President Donald J. Trump (left), Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney (center), and Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre (right). Source: Author

Three weeks ago, Canada saw a shift in leadership under the Liberal Party with the election of Mark Carney as the country’s next Prime Minister. This result came after the resignation of Justin Trudeau who had served as Prime Minister since 2015, before finally being ousted from the politics of Rideau Hall by his party. Barely a month into his leadership, Carney has faced extreme pressure from the Conservative opposition, namely leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has seen a recent boost in the national polls. It is neck-and-neck, but recent international events have meant that there is a possibility that the Liberals now have a chance of forming a government for the fourth consecutive time. On March 24th, Carney announced a snap election with a five-week campaign - the shortest time period allowed. Now, he has five weeks to persuade the country to continue backing his party under a “strong, positive mandate.” The election comes as Canada faces a chaotic trade conflict with the United States at a time when Canadians are already worried that President Donald Trump will make good on his threats of an economic and cultural takeover. The narrative is confusing though; one must ask if this campaign is being launched in the name of preserving the Canadian way of life or for the political survival of those sitting in Ottawa. 

Two sides of the story

The situation with the US can best be described by Carney: “He [Donald Trump] wants to break us so America will own us. We will not let that happen.” Polievere similarly declares, “We have to convert our anxiety into action.” Since February, Trump has imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on one of Canada’s most vital sectors, the automobile industry. In addition, a further 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and dairy products has further strained bilateral relations. The economic impact has been merciless. The Canadian dollar has weakened, and key manufacturing provinces like Ontario and Quebec face unemployment challenges as Canada heads into possible early stages of economic concessions. The future looks grim for the country in this perspective, with the possibility of renegotiations for USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement), the successor to NAFTA, on the horizon as a result. While this is an important issue that will be on the face of Canadian politics for the time being, the snap elections are not solely focused on current events but instead have a hidden meaning that still lingers in the background. 

As seen before with many European leaders, snap elections have been called for a sole purpose: approval ratings. This has been a topic closely monitored by the Liberal Party, ever since what Polievere has coined as Trudeau’s “lost Liberal decade.” His declining popularity, stemming from public dissatisfaction over economic issues, eventually led to his resignation. A leadership vacuum opened up as a result and coupled with internal party divisions and recent by-election losses, weakened the Liberals’ position. In contrast, the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, capitalized on these issues by promoting a populist platform that resonated with a public eager for change. By calling for early elections, Carney can revitalize the party’s image by positioning the Liberals as defenders of national sovereignty. The results show that his plan is working. Capitalizing on the party’s upward momentum by addressing these challenging issues has led to an unprecedented swing in the polls that has now put him ahead of the Conservatives, with some projecting that the party has enough support nationally to form a majority government. The true challenge for the Liberals is seeing if this popularity lasts. 

Who’s involved in this election? 

This election is centered around two slogans. The Liberal Party’s “Canada Strong” led by Carney has pledged to address economic reforms, including eliminating the consumer carbon tax for families, farmers, and small businesses. He also proposes halting planned increases in the capital gains tax to stimulate investment and economic growth. Specifically responding to tariffs, Carney advocates for significant investment in infrastructure, coupled with tax cuts for the middle class. Under the Conservative Party’s “Canada First” led by Poilievre, the policies that he seeks to address aren’t so different. He, too, has outlined policies such as reducing the income tax bracket and increasing incentives for investment in Canadian businesses. The only sector in which this truly diverges is with the pay-as-you-go law to address inflation, an initiative requiring new government spending to be offset by savings elsewhere. While a majority of the policies expressed by both parties are directed at combating American tariffs, it allows the two leaders to also address much-needed domestic issues. The election will also bring in the progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) under Jagmeet Singh, as well as the overly nationalist Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet. These two parties, however, are more likely to become obscure as the election drags on. 

The forthcoming snap election represents a pivotal moment for Canada. While it is important to look at why the snap election is being called, there is no denying that it is offering citizens an opportunity to shape the nation’s response to external economic challenges and redefine its position on the global stage. The polls are still fluctuating, but as Canadians prepare to cast their votes, only one thing will be on their mind: capable leadership that can steer the country through its turbulent times. The message remains clear. For Carney, political survival is a possibility, but it’s not a guarantee.