Preference of Trump’s Policies Over Biden's Across Demographics May Signal Electoral Shift in 2024
Biden and Trump pictured recently. Source: Bloomberg
A recent NYTimes poll conducted in February indicates that among registered voters, former president Donald Trump’s policies have secured preference over those of President Joe Biden despite age, race, and gender divisions. On average, all groups were more likely to say that the policies of the Trump administration helped them personally while the policies of the Biden administration hurt them personally. This unexpected development has sparked worry among democrats and the Biden administration about what obstacles they may face in just a few short months during the presidential election.
Why Might Voters Prefer Trump’s Policies Over Biden’s Policies?
While it is not new that voters tend to view a president more fondly once they leave office, several additional factors may be contributing to the growing preference for the policies of the Trump administration, the most notable of which is related to economic performance. A significant number of voters perceive Trump’s economic policies as more effective than those of the Biden administration in encouraging job creation and economic prosperity. One Trump policy in particular, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, was the biggest tax overhaul since Reagan’s Tax Reform Act of 1986. Especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump’s promise to emphasize tax cuts, job creation, and market deregulation has seemed to appeal to those seeking economic recovery, despite a higher job loss by the end of his presidency.
Another factor that may contribute to Trump’s growing favorability is his attitude toward foreign policy marked by a firm approach to trade deals and sanctions. Republicans who prioritize America’s global economic standing also seem to approve of Trump’s protectionist trade war with China, with 62% saying such tariffs help the U.S. economy. While during his presidency Trump promised to correct the trade deficit, protect against intellectual property theft, and keep American manufacturing jobs competitive, today many mainstream economists agree that Trump’s approach to trade actually harmed domestic consumers, businesses, and the economy.
Should the Biden Campaign be Sounding Alarm Bells?
With Trump’s policies gaining popularity across demographics, the Biden campaign might feel pressure to reassess its campaign approach and regain favorability among voters. While a general preference for Trump’s policies does not necessarily suggest a significant dissatisfaction with the policies of the current administration, polling results favoring Trump may nonetheless threaten Biden’s prospects for reelection, and partisanship may be to blame. Political partisanship, characterized by a prejudice in favor of a particular party and a reluctance to compromise, can have a significant influence on the spread of misinformation among the American public. For example, the Brookings Institute conducted a study in 2021 examining the Twitter activity of a large sample of U.S. users. They found that the sharing of false news has less to do with ignorance and more to do with partisan political affiliation, and such false news is widely available to partisans to delegitimize their opponents. The sort of partisan misinformation perpetuated by the Trump administration has only intensified misconceptions regarding the effectiveness of his policies, most notably those regarding the U.S. southern border. Sounding alarm bells may be necessary for the Biden administration, with an emerging need to recognize and address the role of partisanship in shaping public perceptions of presidential performance.
Conclusion: Would This Translate into an Electoral Success for Trump?
Without a doubt, the voter preference for Trump’s policies is a significant challenge for the Biden campaign and has the potential to result in electoral success for Trump in the upcoming presidential election. However, it must be noted that policy preferences being increasingly motivated by partisanship do not always accurately correlate with electoral outcomes. The future is fundamentally unknowable, and campaign strategies can always sway electoral dynamics and candidate preferences. The Biden administration still has time to address these challenges and pivot its policies to regain public trust, potentially securing the electoral landscape for Democrats in 2024.