The Lumbee Tribe’s Rightward Shift
Former President Trump speaks to supporters at a campaign event in Lumberton, NC, during the 2020 election (Source: The News & Observer)
Robeson is a rural North Carolina county close to the South Carolina border. The Lumbee Indians are the predominant ethnic group in Robeson County, after whom the town Lumberton is named. For most of the twenty-first century, Robeson County was a district North Carolina Democrats could consistently rely on for votes.
President Barack Obama won Robeson County with 58% of the vote during the 2012 presidential election. Furthermore, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Walter Dalton won 60% of the county’s vote that same year. Recently, however, Robeson and its Lumbee population have shifted markedly to the right.
In 2020, President Donald Trump won Robeson County with 59% of the vote, representing a political shift of nearly 36 points to the right since 2012. The rightward movement of Robeson County becomes even more peculiar when you compare the Lumbee’s voting habits to those of other tribes like the Navajo.
Like most other Native American tribes, the Navajo voted overwhelmingly for President Biden in 2020. According to precinct-level data, 60 to 90 percent of Navajo Nation voters went for Biden. So why do the Lumbee vote so differently than other Native American tribes?
The synthesis of consistent Republican campaigning in Robeson, President Trump promulgating protectionist trade policies, and Democrats moving away from issues directly appealing to the community has culminated in Robeson County’s newfound allegiance with the Republican Party.
President Trump made news headlines when he held a rally in Lumberton during the 2020 election cycle. Earlier last year, the Republican National Committee opened a community center in Pembroke, a major city in Robeson County. These two events represent efforts made by the Republican Party to help lure Lumbee voters into the party.
Additionally, Republicans, especially former President Trump, seem to discuss issues resonating with the Lumbee people. In an interview with WUNC, NC State Rep. Jared Lowry, a Republican representing Robeson County, said that when “Donald Trump came through and started talking about this American worker who’s been left behind, and talking about how NAFTA was terrible, you started singing the song that people in Robeson country were talking about.” Rep. Lowry also noted that Democrats “used to talk about sustainable jobs, community healthcare, and now they’re not talking about those issues.” Later in the interview, Lowry added that “Republicans aren’t seen as the big bad rich folks anymore,” demonstrating the Lumbee's growing distaste for the Democratic Party.
While it is unclear whether Robeson will remain conservative for the foreseeable future, given the Republican Party’s embrace of former President Trump and their committed investment in Robeson, it seems Republicans can count on winning Robeson in the next election.
Despite Robeson’s conservative shift becoming increasingly apparent every election, Republicans do not seem to do better in statewide races. For example, President Trump won Robeson County by less than five points in 2016 and North Carolina by a little less than four points. Despite winning Robeson by nearly nineteen points in 2020, President Trump won North Carolina by less than two points.
It seems just because Republicans are winning Robeson County by greater margins, they are not doing better across the state as a whole. Perhaps that is because of Robeson’s relatively small population of fewer than 120,000 citizens, or rather, Democrats are canceling out Republicans' gains in Robeson County by increasing their margins of victory in urban counties.
Though President Trump increased his margin of victory in Robeson County by 14 points in 2020 compared to his 2016 results, he only won about 7,000 more votes. In Wake County, however, President Trump lost by 5.6 points more in 2020 than in 2016. This difference resulted in 62,000 more votes for President Biden than Hillary Clinton received in Wake County alone.
While Robeson County’s shift is extremely interesting to study and reveals information regarding the political issues Indigenous communities prioritize, the county’s shift in voting behavior is currently not enough to guarantee Republican statewide victories. If Republicans can continue to make inroads in Robeson County as well as stop the bleeding in urban North Carolina, the Lumbee’s shift can certainly help propel the Republican Party to continued statewide victories.