Turkey Ratifies Sweden’s NATO Bid
On January 25th, the Turkish parliament voted to approve Sweden’s membership application to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense alliance. The country’s president subsequently approved the ratification. Thus, all NATO member states except Hungary have approved Sweden’s application for accession to the alliance.
This latest vote marks the next step in an extended application and negotiation process. Sweden and Finland first applied for NATO membership in May 2022 due to security concerns from the Russian offensive in Ukraine earlier that year. However, while Finland joined the alliance in April 2023, Turkey expressed concerns that Sweden’s anti-terror legislation was too weak. Ankara especially highlighted concerns around the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The group has been declared a terrorist organization by both the United States and the European Union based on a history of violence, including urban bombings.
In May 2023, Sweden attempted to address Turkey’s concerns by strengthening its anti-terror legislation. The new Swedish legislation package criminalizes activities such as organizing meetings or arranging transport for terrorist groups. It also adds harsher penalties for terrorism-related offenses by allowing a prison sentence of 20 years to life for individuals convicted of leading terror organizations. While Swedish officials have stated that merely joining a protest or meeting is not a criminal act under the new legislation, protestors are concerned that Turkey may compel Sweden further to limit the rights of non-terrorist Kurdish separatism supporters once in NATO.
There is also a transactional element at play. Due to Ankara’s acceptance of the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile defense system in 2019, Turkey was expelled from the F-35 fighter jet program. US supplies and materials were relocated out of the country along with the jets. Turkey’s President Erdogan has explicitly stated in the past that he would not sign the accession unless the US agreed to sell Turkey F-16 fighter jets, an older model than the F-35. With Turkey signing the accession protocol, the State Department approved the fighter jet sale on January 26th. However, some organizations such as the Hindu American Foundation and the Middle East Forum oppose the sales, citing concerns about Turkey loaning the jets to other regional actors and using them to raise tensions with fellow NATO member and longtime rival Greece.
Turkey’s approval of the accession protocol leaves Hungary as the only NATO country yet to approve Sweden’s membership. Despite promises from Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the Hungarian parliament is unlikely to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership before its next session on February 26th. The reason for Hungary’s delay is unclear. However, Hungary has cultivated good relations with Russia in exchange for low-cost energy supplies. It has previously pressured the EU to release funds frozen due to concerns about a perceived lack of democracy in the Hungarian political system. Recently, the Hungarian government has complained about what it views as inaccurate statements from Swedish politicians about the quality of its government. Fighter jets may also play here, as Hungary will soon negotiate an extension of its expiring contract for a Swedish jet system.
The extended process of Sweden’s NATO accession, still incomplete, is an important reminder of the complexity of modern international politics. A move by Sweden to join a defensive alliance due to concerns stemming from Russian actions in Ukraine is delayed due to a dispute about security and human rights with Turkey. Fighter jet contracts and EU aid to Hungary are also involved. Thus, actions in one sphere can reverberate in others. Furthermore, Turkey and Hungary show that it can be hard for international entities such as NATO or the EU to punish recalcitrant or deviant members by suspending funds or weapons systems. To remain relevant, the international governance system must continue to find ways to correct the behavior of members more effectively while allowing representation of diverse political perspectives.