Unaffiliated Voters are now the Largest Political “Party” in North Carolina. What Does This Mean for 2024?

Photo by Mario Tama via the Pennsylvania Capital Star

Unaffiliated voters are now the largest voting block in North Carolina, with Democratic voter share beginning to shrink. But what does this mean for the upcoming 2024 election?

In March of 2022, unaffiliated voters officially overtook Democrats as the most significant political affiliation in the state. Since then, the Democratic party has lost 81,395 voters, while the Republican party gained 37,295. In contrast, the number of unaffiliated voters grew by a whopping 232,212.

In terms of voter share, Democrats still hold second place by a thin margin of 32.5%, compared to Republicans’ 30%. Those without an official affiliation make up the remaining 36.7%, making them incredibly powerful in deciding elections. So, why are so many North Carolinians registering as unaffiliated, and how do they vote?

There are a number of factors that can cause a person to register without an official political party, many of which can overlap. Some voters register as unaffiliated due to frustrations with the two-party system as a whole. Others don’t wish to have their political views publicly identifiable through a party. Others simply don’t have a strict allegiance to one party or were unsure of their political views at the time of their registration.

Malea Mull, a junior at UNC and fellow writer at the CPR, was one of these voters. She got her driver’s license at 16 and was simply caught off-guard by the question of party affiliation.

“At 16, you don’t really think much about your voter registration because you can’t even vote,” she responded to a survey on independent voters. “When they ask you what you want to register as when you’re getting your driver’s license, you just kind of panic.”

Perhaps more importantly, many unaffiliated voters are defectors from both major parties. In 2020, more than 22,000 Republican voters re-registered as either Democrats or, more commonly, unaffiliated voters. According to WUNC’s Rusty Jacobs, this trend traces back to discontent over the Trump presidency and particularly the events of January 6th. Others left the party because they believed that the Republican establishment did not do enough to stop Democrats from stealing the 2020 election–which did not happen, according to post-election reports. 

In the same year, 13,000 Democrats also re-registered under another or no party, a trend which has since continued. Many young progressive voters feel disillusioned with the party and Joe Biden’s leadership. They claim that the Democratic Party has  failed in its promises to protect the climate and women’s rights; others refuse to vote for Biden because of his support for Israel’s attack on Gaza.

However, neither of these cases necessarily mean that a person will stop voting for candidates of their original party. Despite changing parties as a “protest vote,” many Republicans who left the party in 2020 still state that they will vote for Republican candidates moving forward. Similarly, even former Democrats dissatisfied with the party’s lack of progressive action are willing to support moderate candidates rather than “wasting” their vote or not voting.

Independent of official affiliation, Pew Research Center found that 43% of North Carolina voters identify as either a Democrat or Democratically-leaning, while 40% identify as Republican or Republican-leaning. The voting habits of the remaining 17% with “no lean” are difficult to determine from this survey. Still, political analysts suggest that voter registration is a lagging indicator of public opinion. In other words, North Carolina has largely been voting Republicans into office, so Republican voter registrations are expected to outstrip Democratic ones in the coming years.

The rise of unaffiliated voters is evidence of growing discontentment towards the two-party system as a whole, which is going unanswered by politicians. Young voters are no longer satisfied with the “lesser of two evils” narrative. Yet, rather than changing to appeal to them, high-level Democrats like Nancy Pelosi have dismissed critics as Russian agents. The extent of this is yet to be seen, but the numbers do not look good for either party. In 2022 exit polls, 58% of voters identified as something other than either conservative Republican or liberal Democrat. Among independent voters, 44% reported being unfavorable towards both parties.