Pennsylvania and the 2024 Election: The Race for America’s Most Crucial Swing State
Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump court voters in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important battleground state in the 2024 election. Source: PBS
In the 2020 presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden claimed victory in Pennsylvania, ultimately propelling him over the magic “270” to become president-elect. Biden won the state’s 20 electoral votes by a mere 1.17%—80,555 votes ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump, to be exact. His triumph in the Keystone State came four days after Election Day, the results delayed on account of the large number of mail-in and provisional ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Evidently, Pennsylvania is a complex case study in electorally analyzing the 2020 cycle. Four years later, the situation is nearly identical. Only days away from the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are virtually deadlocked in Pennsylvania and nationally. The most recent New York Times/Siena poll has Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania at 48%, while nationally, Harris holds a slight 3-point lead over Trump among likely voters, according to an ABC/Ipsos poll.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are counting on success in Pennsylvania in their Electoral College calculus. In fact, without the 19 electoral votes, a win for either campaign appears bleak. At a recent campaign rally, Trump stressed the significance of the state: “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing.” Similarly, Harris conveyed similar sentiments while visiting a Black-owned bookstore in West Philadelphia. “Victory runs through Philly and it runs through Pennsylvania,” she expressed to a local resident.
Naturally, along with the state’s razor-thin margin comes close scrutiny by the campaigns. Mirroring his 2020 strategy of election denialism and perpetuating fallacious claims of fraud, Trump has already begun contriving instances of “rigging” in Pennsylvania. When Lancaster and York County announced investigations into suspected voter registration fraud this week, Trump took to Truth Social: “We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania. Must announce and PROSECUTE, NOW!” On the other side of the aisle, Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro called out Trump’s antics as a “carbon-copy job of what he did back in 2020,” and attempted to instill confidence back into Pennsylvania’s electoral processes.
Conflicts over voting procedure in Pennsylvania for the 2024 cycle have already reached the highest court in the nation. On Friday, the Supreme Court sustained a lower court ruling allowing alternative options for those whose mail-in ballots are rejected. The case arose from two residents in Butler County who received notice that their ballots would be thrown out because they failed to enclose them in “secrecy sleeves.” In a blow to Republicans, Pennsylvania voters now have the chance to cast a provisional ballot if their mail-in ballot is declined. Democrats contended that the rejection of these ballots could disenfranchise thousands of voters due to a “technical error,” and thus highly opposed efforts from their opponents to overturn the lower court’s decision. Numerous other lawsuits have also been filed in Pennsylvania courts, including a successful effort by the Trump campaign to extend the in-person early voting deadline in Bucks County after reports of long lines.
The virtually tied race in Pennsylvania is undeniably in part due to the sheer diversity of the state. According to Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis, Pennsylvania is “almost a microcosm of America.” For instance, while the Democrats retain blue strongholds in and around the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Trump campaign has historically performed well in rural, industrial regions. It might very well be this reason that year after year the state remains an intense battleground for Democrats and Republicans.
In response to these demographics, the Harris campaign has employed a new strategy in securing a Pennsylvania victory: cutting the loss margins in red counties. Of the 50 Harris campaign offices in the state, 16 are located in counties that Trump won by double-digits in 2020. Furthermore, Democratic surrogates like Senator John Fetterman and Governor Shapiro have campaigned vigorously in GOP-favored districts. Whether Harris can improve upon Biden’s margins in 2020 will be of critical importance in a victory scenario for the Democrats.
No matter the outcome of the presidential race, one thing is certainly clear: winning Pennsylvania is a prerequisite for gaining the keys to the White House for either candidate. Reaching this point will undoubtedly be an uphill battle for both camps — one that might extend far past election night. For Trump, this means blocking efforts by Democrats to gain electoral ground in historically safe red districts. For Harris, this means combating egregious disinformation and a deluge of litigation from her opponent.