Democrats Suffer Decisive Loss of the Senate to Republicans
Trump-backed Montana Senator-elect Tim Sheehy addresses the crowd at an Aug. 9 Trump rally in Bozeman, Montana. Source: Shaylee Ragar via Montana Public Radio.
Senate Republicans won a decisive majority on Election Day with 52 GOP senator-elects even with races left to be called. Republicans will likely gain another seat from Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, though the race remains hotly contested. It has been eight years since Republicans held a Senate majority of 52 seats.
Republicans flipped Democrat seats across the country on Tuesday night. Three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D-MT) lost to Trump-backed Tim Sheehy. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) vacated seat was seized by West Virginia Governor Jim Justice. Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D-OH) lost to Bernie Moreno. Colin Allred, who raised over $80 million throughout his campaign, failed to unseat incumbent Ted Cruz (R-TX).
Some of the flipped seats were hotly contested from the beginning. Come late October, Sheehy and Tester were locked in a dead heat in the polls. On Election Day in Ohio, the most recent polls showed Brown trailing Moreno by just three points with a margin of error of 3.2.
Other races were not so competitive. Governor Justice held a knockout lead of nearly 40 points over Democratic challenger Glenn Elliott in early September. On Election Eve, Cruz was predicted to have an 83% chance of victory over Allred.
Whatever the outcome of the races yet to be called, Republicans have secured a comfortable Senate majority. It remains uncertain who will take control of the House, but conservatives effectively control the White House, half of Congress, and the Supreme Court.
With Republicans in control of the Senate, there will be few roadblocks to confirmation for Trump’s picks of cabinet officials and Supreme Court if Justices Alito and Thomas step down during the upcoming term. The president-elect will not have to appeal to centrists like Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME).
The GOP takeover of the Senate did not shock senior Democratic officials the way Trump’s victory did. Republicans were favored to win the Senate, especially given the all-but-guaranteed seat made available by Manchin in deep red West Virginia. By September, the National Republican Senatorial campaign had raised over $200 million, nearly equalling the fundraising of Senate Democrats.
Democrats and Republicans alike hold their breath waiting for House election results. A completely red Congress would clear the way for Trump’s policies. A Democratic House, though, could act as a significant obstacle to the Republican agenda.
Outgoing Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell called it a “helluva good day” for Republicans. Despite his criticisms of Trump, Republican government control ultimately was more important in the Minority leader’s eyes than Trump’s actions he once described as “disgraceful”. Republicans appear satisfied with their Election Day performance this year.