The Results of France’s Snap Elections are Poised to Have a Challenging Effect on Macron’s Government
Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader speaks after French president Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election. President of the far-right National Rally party, Jordan Bardella, listens. Source: Lewis Joly via AP News.
On June 30th and July 7th, 2024, the French government held a two-round snap election. If a candidate wins an outright majority (greater than 50%) of the vote in the first round, they are elected outright. If this does not happen, candidates who won at least 12.5% of votes move onto a second round. French president Emmanuel Macron called the election after his party, Renaissance, was defeated in the European parliamentary elections, falling to Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN). Despite the belief of many in the media that the RN would prevail in this snap election, a coalition of left-wing parties, the New Popular Front, was able to prevent them from securing a majority. No party was able to secure the majority of votes, which could cause gridlock and difficulty in policymaking for President Macron. This election also shows the rise of right-wing politics as well as increasing political polarization in France.
While the RN did not emerge from the snap election with a majority, the results of this two-round election shows their rise in popularity. In the first of two rounds of elections, the RN won 33% of the vote and 40 of the 76 seats in the National Assembly. It was following this surge in the first round that a coalition of left-wing parties banded together to prevent the RN from winning the second round. Known as the “Republican Front,” this coalition strategy has been used many times to keep the far-right out of power in France. In the second round, the RN won 143 seats in the 577-seat assembly, just below 25% of available seats, while the New Popular Front won 180 seats, preventing the RN from reaching a majority.
The far-right has slowly risen to prominence by mainstreaming its politics after Le Pen was elected as president of the party in 2011. Some of the policies the RN has capitalized on to better resonate with voters are preventing undocumented immigration and protesting pension reforms that raised retirement age. The RN’s results were their strongest showing in an election ever, demonstrating the rise of right-wing politics in France. In addition, Macron’s centrist party lost support, causing increased polarization. Macron has always been considered a political risk-taker, but his decision to call this snap election came as a surprise to many, including his allies. The results of this election show that his gamble only somewhat paid off: while he was able to hold off the rise of the RN and far-right, his own party lost support, which will make policymaking difficult. One party did not emerge from the election with an absolute majority of seats, leaving parliament fragmented between the far-right, far-left, and centrists. Known as a ‘hung parliament,’ this presents a risk of gridlock and will make policymaking difficult.
The results of the election showed increasing polarization with the rise of far-right and left extremes. The weakening of the centrist party and the current division of the French assembly will prove to make policymaking difficult, especially as France is faced with many pressing issues. After French politics took somewhat of a pause during the 2024 Olympic Games, French politicians are now faced with attending to diplomatic policies such as immigration and national security. France is a prominent leader in the European Union and one of the world’s largest economies, so their policies will undoubtedly have an impact on governments other than just their own.
As the United States election approaches, similarities can be seen between the US and France as the political extremes continue to have a more significant impact on politics than the weakening center. The results of France’s snap election showed a disappearing centrist political party as Macron struggles to maintain his moderate party as a dominant force. For citizens, this creates the feeling that there are no credible options to identify with politically except for the extremes. A parallel can be seen between these feelings of French citizens and that of Americans, as 65% of Americans report feeling ‘exhausted’ when thinking about politics and as if they are not represented in either of the hyper-partisan options.