Belarusians Live in Fear of President Lukashenko’s Crackdowns

Lukashenko and Putin discuss. Source: Getty Images via Newsweek

President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus has been in power for three decades and has launched attacks on democracy since. In 2020, Lukashenko won an election largely viewed by Belarusians as rigged. Poll workers described ballots cast for another candidate being moved to Lukashenko’s stack, certifying vote totals before voting concluded, and being fired if they refused to falsify results. Lukashenko will seek a seventh term in 2025. Outside organizations were prohibited from monitoring parliamentary and local elections this year. The president has launched a string of attacks on civil liberties that render Belarus dangerous for anyone who dissents against his administration. 

After Lukashenko won the seemingly corrupt 2020 election, protesters flooded the streets. Lukashenko responded with a swift crackdown to root out the demonstrations, detaining over 65,000 protesters who were skeptical of the election’s security. In addition, the United Nations reported torture, rape, and beatings of detained protesters. The Parliamentary Assembly of Europe estimates between 300,000 and 500,000 Belarusians have fled since the 2020 election. There are, according to the Belarusian government, currently 1,400 political prisoners in Belarus; however, the US Embassy believes there are more. 

Additionally, the e sociopolitical climate in Belarus remains tense and fraught with fear. Any critique of the government easily places a citizen in the throes of judicial proceedings dictated by the president. Regardless of the subject matter of the criticism–governmental wrongdoings, human rights issues, or the war in Ukraine, Lukashenko does not hesitate to stamp out any opposition. 

Anecdotes of the fate of political prisoners are enough to scare away even the most determined of activists. The Social Democratic Party activist, Ihar Lednik, died in prison this February after repeated complaints of his deteriorating health. He is the fifth person to die in a Belarusian prison in two years. Since 2020, there have been a dozen deaths in prison. If found guilty (99.7% of trials result in conviction), activists face up to 12 years of imprisonment. Understandably, many fled the country to avoid their charges. In their absence, Lukashenko launched raids and property seizures on the homes of Belarusians who left. 

The situation in Belarus has broader implications than initially apparent. The alliance between Belarus and Russia presents a veritable threat to European security and, by extension, their allies. Belarus reportedly houses some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. Additionally, Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to stage their invasions of Kyiv in 2021 and 2022 from within Belarus’ borders.

Moreover, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of jailed Belarusian opposition leader Siarhei Tsikhanousaya and a veritable leader in her own right, claimed that a free and democratic Belarus is vital to resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Belarus, in its current close alignment with Russia, presents a frightening take-off point for future Russian invasions of Ukraine. Attacks from Belarus are far closer to Kyiv than Russia is, simplifying the movement of Russian troops. Lukashenko threatened in late September to mobilize nuclear weapons if NATO attacked Russia or Belarus. 

The dire human rights situation in Belarus acts as a ominous reminder of the fragility of democracy in Eastern Europe. Countries that were previously satellite states of the Soviet Union still live under the looming shadow of Putin’s Russia. The plight of Belarus is one that must be considered by the global community.