The Eight Most Vulnerable Senate Seats in the 2024 Election

A look at an interactive map for the 2024 Senate Elections, Source for Picture: 270towin

Politicians are already gearing up for the 2024 election season, which is more than a year away. The 2024 Senate map is not favorable for Democrats, as the party will have to defend 23 out of the 34 seats up for grabs.  

There are eight key states under close watch: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Republicans hold an advantage in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, as these three states carried Trump by at least eight points in 2020. 

Democrat Joe Manchin will face re-election in Republican West Virginia. Sen. Manchin won his last Democratic bid for reelection by three points in West Virginia, which carried Trump in 2020 by 40 points. Manchin began his Senate career in 2010 after becoming a popular governor in West Virginia. Many believe if he retires, it will take the seat out of play for Democrats. 

Montana’s Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's seat will be closely watched in 2024, as Montana is not a swing state. Montana carried former President Trump by more than 16 points in 2020. In the same election year, Republican Sen. Steve Daines won by 10 points and current Democratic Sen. Jon Tester defeated Republican Matt Rosendale by only 3.5 points. Tester has not committed to a reelection and is viewed by the Democratic party as the incumbent who has the highest chance of holding a Democratic seat in Montana. 

Ohio will be at the center of attention, as Democrat Sherrod Brown is running again in a state that carried Trump in 2016 and 2020. Brown will struggle to run independent of a ballot that will most likely include President Biden and his nationally low approval rate. It is expected that Republicans will contest this seat heavily. 

Democrats will defend Senate seats in many key battleground states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

The most vulnerable seat in Arizona is the seat held by Sen. Krysten Sinema. Sinema switched her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent in 2022. The 2024 election is not ideal for Democrats in Arizona, as the campaigns of both an Independent and a Democrat could divide the moderate and liberal vote, which is the target of the Democratic party. Arizona’s emergence as a battleground state and the combination of a split vote between a Democratic forerunner and Independent Sinema leaves a very vulnerable seat for Democrats in Arizona. 

The retirement announcement of current Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan uprooted Democrats' reelection plans and with no official Democratic candidates stepping up to run, Republicans have an opening to take this seat. The uncertainty of Stabenow’s retirement sets the race over this seat to be long and competitive and will be one of the momentous races in 2024. 

Republicans are hoping for a stronger candidate against Democrat John Fetterman, who suffered a stroke mid campaign in 2022 and earlier this year was hospitalized due to depression, in Pennsylvania in 2024 following Mehmet Oz’s defeat by Fetterman. 

Following a highly competitive 2022 election, Nevada is headed towards another close race in 2024 over Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen’s seat. This will be Rosen’s first reelection and incumbents in their reelection tend to be more vulnerable. Republicans say Nevada’s demographics and electorate are shifting to become friendlier to the GOP. These factors make Nevada a likely target for the GOP in 2024. 

Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin has not confirmed a reelection campaign, but if she does it will be a closely watched race. Baldwin won by 6% in 2012 and by 10 points in 2018, but Wisconisn is still a swing state. 

It’s not time to count on Democrats in 2024, as they fared better than expected in the 2022 midterms. The fate of the Democrats will rest highly on whoever will represent the Democratic party on the ballot for the 2024 Presidential election and the voters. So, remember your vote counts.

Democrats will face challenging senate elections in 2024. The Democratic candidate running for President will make or break this election, as Senators will be running on the same ballot as the Democratic presidential nominee.