It’s Campaign Season in Indonesia

An official photo of Indonesia’s current president, Joko Widodo. Photo courtesy of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia. Source for photo: Wikipedia Commons

Two terms and it is done for Indonesia’s current president, Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, despite some aborted machinations to change the law to give him a third term. This sets up a tight race for the next head of government in the world’s fourth-most-populous country, where the February date will kick-start a 2024 filled with elections around the world, including in the USA, the UK, and India. But Jokowi’s stratospheric approval rating, as high as 76%, boosted by strong economic indicators and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, will be a tough act to follow for any successor.
The three candidates in the running are Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Prabowo Subianto. All three are, as is required to be a presidential candidate in Indonesia, backed by a coalition or single party with at least 20% of parliamentary seats. The presence of three candidates also suggests a high likelihood of a runoff between the top two; most predictions have that being Ganjar and Prabowo, with Anies having slimmer chances. Both Ganjar and Prabowo have been clearly courting Jokowi’s support, while relationships between Anies and Jokowi have been historically tense.

Prabowo, the leader in this race, also has the longest track record as a major Indonesian political figure. He opposed Jokowi in both the 2014 and 2019 elections, but was then absorbed into Jokowi’s cabinet after the latter. Before that, he was part of Indonesia’s military government under Suharto, a dictator who ruled Indonesia for 30-odd years. Because of that, he was formerly banned from the United States as punishment for allegedly supervising the kidnapping of student activists in Papua and East Timor, now Timor-Leste. 

Yet during this election, he has aggressively sought Jokowi’s favor, particularly by appointing Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice-presidential candidate. This decision caused controversy, because Gibran is only 36, still four years away from the minimum age to be a vice-presidential candidate of 40. It took a decision of the Constitutional Court, where Gibran’s uncle was likely the deciding vote, to let him run. This raises the specter of Jokowi establishing yet another familial dynasty in Indonesian politics, where relatives of former Indonesian dictators Sukarno and Suharto, a category that includes Prabowo by marriage, are highly influential.

Meanwhile, Prabowo’s strongest challenge is expected to come from Ganjar Pranowo and his vice-presidential candidate, Mahfud MD. Unlike the other two candidates, Ganjar does not come from a political family, but has gained significant political experience as the governor of Central Java. Observers have given him acclaim for focusing on detailed economic and domestic policies regarding Indonesian economic growth, but he still rarely leads in polls despite the controversies swirling around the Prabowo team.

The third candidate, Anies Baswedan, stands out because of his Islamic reputation, dating back to his divisive but successful campaign for governor of Jakarta against the Christian incumbent Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama. This was further bolstered by his vice presidential pick of Muhaimin “Cak Imin” Iskandar, part of the large and influential Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama, to which Mahfud MD also belongs. Still, despite sporadic optimism from analysts about Anies’s chances, he stands well behind the other two in the polls and seems increasingly likely to be eliminated, leading to a Prabowo-Ganjar runoff. This indicates that there currently isn’t a large market for his brand of Islamically tinged politics at the national level.

If there’s one point of agreement among Indonesian political commentators, it is that personality trumps policy in the archipelago. Most evidence points towards the candidates (possibly not Anies) continuing the vast majority of Jokowi-era policies. This means a continued focus on “downstreaming” nickel, a policy where Indonesia restricts exports of raw nickel to force it to be processed in Indonesia, contravening WTO regulations. Nickel mining and processing is important for Indonesia’s economy, but it also has severe environmental costs. It also means that Nusantara, the new capital being built out of the jungle of Kalimantan, seems likely to continue as a way of solidifying Jokowi’s legacy as president. This capital would spread power away from Java, the island Jakarta is on, but also requires significant investment to actually happen.

Still, there are some differences when it comes to foreign policy. Prabowo got off on the wrong foot with the West and Indonesia’s tiny neighbor of Timor-Leste by being an active participant in the suppression of Timor-Leste’s independence movement. He has also indicated a willingness for Indonesia to join the BRICS alliance of large developing countries, which, because it includes China, is considered a move towards China. Despite Ganjar’s domestic focus, political researcher Alexander R Arifianto is not particularly impressed by his foreign policy chops, and predicts a continuation of Jokowi-style neutrality between the West and China. Under the so-called bebas-aktif policy, Indonesia has sought to engage with its neighbors in ASEAN while steering clear of looking like an ally of either the US or China. Meanwhile, Anies has argued for a focus on values (e.g., allying with other democracies) and has been out front in criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although his Nahdlatul Ulama ties also mean that he is likely to be a bridge-builder with the Muslim world.
Although there are significant differences, some parallels can be drawn between the 2024 Indonesian and American elections. Prabowo, like Trump, is highly controversial with a public image as a tough guy, and should expect a frosty reception into the club of global leaders. Meanwhile, Ganjar does not attract as much controversy and comes off as focused on domestic policy, somewhat like Biden. Indonesia’s wild card, a candidate who seems unlikely to win but still could, is Anies, while the United States has Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Dean Phillips, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. all in the chase. I would argue that the most likely outcome is Ganjar narrowly defeating Prabowo in the runoff after the two handily stay clear of Anies in the general election, but both the United States and Indonesia have high levels of uncertainty about the 2024 outcome. Do not take the analogy too far, but all this makes Indonesia commentary from the analysts at Ayolah and Indonesia at Melbourne interesting for a look into politics around the world.