Can Republicans Replace Trump?
Former President Donald Trump photographed from behind. Source for photo: Robert Perry/Getty Images
It’s a tale as old as time: a charismatic leader led a populist campaign and had a controversial time in office. Now, Republicans must decide on what to do with Trump in the coming election cycle.
Former President Donald Trump has maintained a cult of personality in the GOP voting base, even while facing multiple criminal indictments, including two from the Justice Department and in the state of Georgia. Moreover, he has not appeared in either of the two Republican primary debates. When Mitt Romney announced his retirement, he commented that Trump and Biden need to “step aside” to make way for new leaders. So, how can a politician who inspired his base to storm the capitol on January 6th step aside?
One way for a candidate to replace Trump is to create a new cult of personality. Ron DeSantis has been making solid progress in this department by passing popular legislation in Florida like the Parental Rights in Education, or the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. By passing bills popular with his voting base, DeSantis has established himself as a politician that gets results. Also, he has shown his willingness to stand up to Disney, or to follow through on the “woke” rhetoric from Republican pundits. His policies are popular with the Republican voting base, but DeSantis simply does not have Trump’s charisma, as he has been blasted by liberal news sites for his “weird smile.” According to a September 28 poll, 34 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of DeSantis, and he does not seem to possess Trump’s ability to deftly move through controversy.
Another promising younger candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, is polling third behind Trump and DeSantis. However, DeSantis campaign memos reveal a strategy of “hammering” Ramaswamy during the debates, demonstrating their estimation of Ramaswamy – that he could win the nomination. Additionally, Ramaswamy is committed to a policy of state-level determinism; he wants to disassemble federal organizations like the FBI and the Department of Education to give states more decision-making power.
However, Ramaswamy does not seem to be a candidate that can reach across the aisle. He has strong stances opposing the LGBTQ+ movement, and he has previously said he is also against a justice-based framework for distributing social goods based on gender, sex, or race. Ramaswamy strongly opposes welfare and reparations-based policies from the Democratic camp. He does not want social equity, so Americans cannot reasonably expect Ramaswamy to write equitable policy.
In such a polarized political environment, alienating swing voters with hardline stances could cost Ramaswamy or DeSantis the presidency if either is nominated as the Republican candidate. Republicans need to find a candidate that can appeal to both sides of the aisle, in the same way that Democrats nominated Biden over other more progressive candidates, to attract centrists and swing voters.
The GOP won a House majority in 2022 by flipping seats in blue states like New York. They focused on criticizing increased crime rates and the increased costs of living. A year before the 2020 election, at least 30 percent of voters had not made up their mind, and that trend could continue in the 2024 presidential election. Republicans should strategically appeal to win that large share of votes, should they exist when the presidential nominees are confirmed.
According to a recent NBC poll, 58 percent of votes for Biden are anti-Trump votes and 57 percent of Trump voters would have voted Trump regardless of the Democrat nominee. In other words, voters on either side filter their choice through Trump first. Both parties need to ensure their candidate can reach the mass appeal of these strict pro/anti-Trump voters if Trump cannot continue his candidacy.
Nikki Haley remains the only female Republican candidate, and she has a unique policy on abortion that could prove useful in garnering liberal support. She does support a national ban, or a ban as strong as Congress can pass, but she also wants to increase access to contraceptives and adoption. Her position is a compromise on an issue where neither side wants to budge, but it gives more power to women than an outright ban. This policy, along with her other moderately conservative policies, gives her a real chance to find Democratic votes. Moreover, her previous experience as the Governor of South Carolina and as the US ambassador to the United Nations can only help her. After the second Republican primary debate she has risen in the polls and she has support from traditional left-leaning groups like college-educated voters as well as independent voters.
Currently, Trump is leading polls by as much as 58 points. Trump has simply too much support from the Republican voting base, to the point that candidates choose to speak favorably of him for fear of losing support. If Trump is found guilty in any of his ongoing trials, Republicans will have to decide whether they want another populist president or a more moderate voice that can swing Democratic and Independent voters. Since Trump lost in 2020, populism may not be the way of the future for the GOP.