Kyrsten Sinema Leaves the Democratic Party, Shaking Up the 2024 Senate Map

Senator Sinema (I-AZ) speaking during a press conference on the passage of the Respect for Marriage Act at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. Source for Picture: PBS

Before Democrats had the chance to fully celebrate their historic Senate victory in the midterm elections –where they not only defended every Democratically held Senate seat, but also added one thanks to the newly elected Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) –Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) dropped a bombshell. 

After proving to be a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus by refusing to eliminate the filibuster, holding up key Democratic priorities, and insisting on trimming down Democratic spending bills, Senator Sinema announced that she will switch her party affiliation from Democratic to Independent. Sinema said that while she is changing her party affiliation to Independent, she will not caucus with Republicans, but refused to say if she will caucus with Democrats. This ambiguity is common for Senator Sinema as she does not typically give interviews, speak with reporters, and tends to buck her former Democratic party. 

However, even though Sinema refused to say if she would caucus with Democrats, she did offer some clarification as to what Americans can expect to see from her as a newly independent Senator.

“Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she told Politico, suggesting that she will continue to vote in a more independent manner than most members of Congress.  

Assuming Sinema sticks to her word, Democrats should continue to have a workable majority in the U.S. Senate, as two Independents, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), already vote and caucus with them. Even if Senator Sinema ends up leaning more to the right than she previously did as a Democrat, not much legislation can be expected to make it to President Biden’s desk in the next two years since Republicans were able to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The current gridlock and divided control of Congress dims Senator Sinema’s ability to change policies, given how Republicans have expressed their disinterest in working with the Democratically-controlled Senate. 

Although Sinema’s exit will probably not have a major impact on the workings of the U.S. Senate, it will have a massive one in 2024 U.S. Senate Race in Arizona should Sinema run for reelection. 

In a closely-divided state like Arizona, an Independent like Sinema running could siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate, allowing Republicans to capture a Senate seat and possibly give them a Senate majority. 

Sinema has not made her intentions clear about whether she plans to run for reelection or not, but some Democrats are already making their frustrations known. 

“Last month, the voters of Arizona made their voices heard loud and clear — they want leaders who put the people of Arizona first. We need Senators who will put Arizonans ahead of big drug companies and Wall Street bankers,” said Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). 

Gallego has been considered a favorite to challenge Sinema in the 2024 Arizona Senate Race, but her party switch has complicated his possible run. 

To Sinema’s credit, her decision is an incredibly savvy political move, giving her a chance to at least make it to a general election in 2024 instead of getting walloped in a primary by Gallego, as she is deeply unpopular with the Democratic base.

The most likely outcome from a three-way race between Gallego, Sinema, and a Republican candidate is that Sinema is able to hold onto the moderate voters who won her the 2018 Arizona Senate election, Gallego wins the more progressive part of the Democratic base, leaving the  Republican candidate is able to clinch the race with a plurality, not a majority. 

This event creates an even bigger headache for Democrats when looking at how this affects their chances of holding their slim Senate majority in 2024. With Democrats having to defend seats in Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio in 2024, all states that Former President Trump won by at least eight points in 2020, as well as the tricky situation in Arizona could mean that Sinema’s party switch may cost Democrats the Senate in 2024.