Increased Polarization Evident in French Presidential Election
French President Emmanuel Macron sits beside his opponent and fellow candidate Marine Le Pen. The two are set to go head to head for the presidency in the second and final round of voting in the French presidential election. Photo via CSMonitor
On April 24, almost 48 million registered voters will be able to cast their votes for either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen to become the next French president. Both survived the first round of voting, coming out as the top two contenders amongst a group of 12 total candidates. While such a result was expected by many experts, the results from the first round of elections showed an increasingly polarized political arena in France as voters take more extreme positions.
Unlike the United States’ electoral college, the French presidential election is decided by direct vote. This means that the candidate with the most votes when the polls close wins. The first round features every candidate, and if no candidate has a majority of votes, the election moves to a second and final round featuring the top two candidates from the first. The first round of this year’s election saw Macron, the incumbent and current favorite to win, receive 27.9% of the vote. Le Pen, who lost to Macron in the second round of the 2017 election, received 23.2%. Despite being ahead, Macron’s popularity has fallen in recent polls, a sign that the election could be a lot closer than 2017.
One reason that Macron may be struggling to maintain his lead is that he is barely campaigning at all. Instead, he has focused his time and energy on the war in Ukraine, heading France’s response to the conflict. Macron shook up French politics in 2017 when he won the presidency without the backing of a major party. He represents the center of the French political spectrum, and his policies center around keeping France and the rest of Europe connected economically and culturally. Amidst war in Ukraine, Macron wants to establish a European defense fund as well as a European Security Council.
In many ways, Le Pen is the opposite of Macron. The far-right candidate has goals including the renegotiation of all European treaties that involve France, such as withdrawing from NATO and amending relations with Russia. Unlike Macron, Le Pen is campaigning feverishly in an attempt to win over centrist voters by attempting to appear moderate. French opinion polls show that the biggest concern of voters is decreasing purchasing power, which Le Pen is promising to mitigate. This approach may be working, as Le Pen’s support has seen a sharp rise in recent weeks.
Although their candidates moved on to the second round, the French center and far-right are not the only groups who performed well in the first round of voting. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in a close third to Le Pen, falling short by just 1.2%. Mélenchon’s platform received the most support from advocacy groups, especially for his long-term environmental planning. Among other political reforms, Mélenchon wanted to introduce proportional representation to the French government. Despite being on opposite sides of the political spectrum, Mélenchon and Le Pen have similar stances on proportional representation as well as French-European relations, albeit for different reasons. Both candidates received a similar number of votes, an indication that French voters are moving from the center of the political spectrum to the far ends. Some have noted that, if less popular far-left candidates had dropped out and Mélenchon had received their votes instead, he would have beaten Le Pen and moved on to the second round. Regardless, the close race between both of the more extreme candidates indicates an increasingly divided France that stands in stark contrast to Macron’s landslide centrist victory in 2017.
With the stage set for the final round of voting, both Macron and Le Pen are making last-ditch efforts to go beyond their bases for votes. For Macron, this means rallying Mélenchon’s far-left voters to vote for him - even if only to prevent a Le Pen victory. Mélenchon has not officially endorsed Macron, but told his supporters that they “must not give a single vote to Mrs. Le Pen.” Unlikely to reach Mélenchon’s supporters, Le Pen has resorted to attempts to sway Macron’s supporters. In a speech after the first round, Le Pen promised to be a president for “all the French” should she win.
Recent trends in polling suggest the election will be close. Macron’s downward spiral combined with a recent upswing in momentum for Le Pen have some regarding the election as a toss-up. The results will have massive implications for France and Europe, as the two candidates running have starkly different visions for the country’s future. Should Macron win, voters should expect a continuation of his current policies. On the other hand, a Le Pen victory would likely be followed by drastic changes to the country’s domestic and foreign policies, bringing practices of isolationism to France. Regardless of the outcome, however, France faces an uncertain future as it navigates an increasingly polarized political sphere.