A Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine: What’s at Stake?

Russian soldiers conduct military drills in the Southern Rostov Region of Russia. Source: Military Times

Russia has vital military and economic interests in Ukraine, as well as deep historical and cultural ties to the Eastern European nation that have pushed Russian president Vladimir Putin to prepare an invasion of Ukraine. Russians, including Putin, view Ukraine as part of Russia. Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as “ ‘one people’ who effectively occupy the same historical and spiritual space.” 

The Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, is considered, along with Moscow and St. Petersburg, one of the mothers of Russian cities, because Kyiv served as the central point from which Christianity spread to the rest of Russia. Russia and Ukraine’s cultural bonds stretch back to the Kievan Rus, the early Slavic proto-state that modern Russia and Ukraine grew out of. Additionally, Ukraine is home to over 8 million ethnic Russians, and much of eastern Ukraine is Russian-speaking. In addition to these ideological ties, the two countries are linked economically. During the Cold War, Ukraine was the home of a significant proportion of Soviet agriculture, and Russia still relies on this trade. Ukrainian gas pipelines are currently a vital means of supporting a struggling Russian economy, at least until Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline is operational, which is several years away. Russia has made it clear that it will not tolerate an anti-Russian Ukraine, or Ukrainian membership in either NATO or the EU. NATO enlargement has been a point of concern for Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and tensions over the question of Ukrainian membership in these organizations have been high since Ukraine became independent in the early 1990s, but they have reached new levels since the election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukrainian President in 2014. Poroshenko, a billionaire, ran on a strongly pro-NATO, pro-EU, and westernization platform, which has continued under the presidents who followed him — including sitting president Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia is steadfastly against Ukraine’s westernization because Ukraine was home to much of the Soviet defense and military technology and infrastructure, and continues to be a vital military location for Russia. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed in Crimea, an area currently occupied by Russia, but legally Ukrainian. If Russia were to lose influence in Ukraine, they would lose contact with the Black Sea, which would severely limit their power in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa, preventing Russia from accessing key natural-resource rich regions — which could bolster their economy. A firm stance on Ukraine is particularly important to Vladimir Putin, who seeks to bolster his domestic support. The Russian people are very supportive of aggressive moves in Ukraine, with Putin’s approval rating rising above 80%, according to the Levada Center, after previous interventions in Ukraine, resolving a previous drop in his approval. Russian opinion polls are notoriously unreliable due to the government’s manipulation of the results, however the Levada Center is accepted as a legitimate and unbiased Russian polling organization, and the Russian government labeled it a foreign agent, an indication of the center’s refusal to simply print what Putin dictates. The re-establishment of Russia as a global power has been one of Putin’s core goals during his leadership of Russia. He seeks to establish a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, which he believes will return Russia to great power status by essentially reconstructing the Soviet Union, albeit with a less obvious Russian presence. Ukraine is an essential piece of this construction — former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brezizinski famously noted that “it cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”

The United States is opposed to any situation that will allow Russian domination of Ukraine and the suppression of Ukrainian sovereignty. The United States has an interest in protecting the nascent democracies that have been established in Eastern Europe after the Cold War, as a bulwark against Russian influence. The United States has publicly described its motivations in Ukraine as a general desire for more global freedom. Allowing Russia to dominate Ukraine would bring on the renewed great power competition. American threat analysts worry that Russian control of Ukraine could lead to a new iron curtain being dropped along the Russian and Chinese spheres of influence, stretching from Finland to the South China Sea, that would force the United States into a new global Cold War against its two strongest rivals. Some scholars have raised concerns about what a Russian invasion of Ukraine could suggest about U.S. military legitimacy after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Analysts fear that the United States will appear weak if they cannot prevent Russian aggression, especially after being run out of Afghanistan. In turn, there are concerns this will embolden other U.S. rivals; Matthew Kroening, from the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Iranian development of nuclear weapons are two possible situations that could occur if those nations believe the U.S. is reeling. Essentially, the United States seeks to maintain the current global status quo in Ukraine, with Russia hemmed in and not a superpower.

Caught in between conflicting great powers, the Ukrainian people are in an incredibly tenuous spot. Around 14,000 people have already died in fighting in Crimea and the Donbas region that has been occurring in Ukraine since 2014, and the current crisis seems likely to significantly increase the rate and scope of military engagement in the country. Military analysts note that the degree of preparation Russia has already conducted, massing over one hundred thousand troops on the Ukrainian border, indicates that Putin has no intention of turning his troops around unless Russian demands are accepted. The United States has categorically denied Russian demands for a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and has recently sent a small contingent of American troops to Ukraine. President Joe Biden has ruled out a major deployment of American troops to stop a Russian invasion, however that does not preclude European allies from assisting Ukraine. With the sheer number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, some degree of conflict is very likely, and any conflict is almost certain to be drawn out and bloody, as noted by American General Mark Milley. All hope is not necessarily lost for the Ukrainian people. US defense secretary Lloyd Austinclaimed that “conflict is not inevitable. There is still time and space for diplomacy.” Despite this optimism, no one in Ukraine will be resting comfortably for the foreseeable future.