Early Voting in Georgia Shatters Turnout Records

Voters standing in line during the early voting season. Source for photo: John Spink of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Georgia voters are shattering turnout records during in-person early voting. In-person turnout totaled over 1.3 million voters and votes-by-mail passing 1.5 million by Saturday morning, Oct. 29th, according to Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger.

This turnout keeps pace with 2020 Presidential levels and vastly surpasses that of the 2018 midterm elections. Georgia has consequential federal and state-level races on the ballot this year, including a marquee Senate race between incumbent Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Hershel Walker, a former University of Georgia football player and a winner of the Heisman trophy (R-GA), as well as a rematch between incumbent Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (D-GA), who hopes her efforts to increase voter access, protection, and registration since her close loss in the 2018 election will create a path to victory for her. 

Both sides have their own interpretations of what this astronomical level of voter turnout means. Democrats say that the organizing and registration they have been engaged in since the 2018 election has spurred turnout. They hope this turnout will be fueled by a more engaged and informed electorate motivated by the overturn of Roe v Wade in June and the poor quality of Hershel Walker as a candidate. On the other hand, Republicans say that voters are looking to reward Governor Brian Kemp at the ballot box for “reopening” Georgia so early in the pandemic compared to other states (June of 2020). Kemp also says that they are concerned over inflation caused by Democratic policies. 

When looking at who is actually turning out so far, this electorate seems to be populated heavily by older and Black voters than seen at this time in previous elections. 30% of the voter turnout so far is Black voters, while they make up only 29% of registered voters in Georgia, having a slightly disproportionate level of participation. This could prove crucial for Abrams, who is counting on extremely high turnout from Black voters, as well Hispanic and Asian Americans to carry her across the finish line in this race. These groups typically vote Democratic at high levels, meaning that if Abrams can get them to turnout for her, she may have a shot to still win this race, despite trailing Kemp in many recent polls. 

However, older voters tend to lean Republican, and with Kemp desperately trying to tie Abrams to Biden’s record, which Georgians vastly disapprove of, this turnout could be a sign of a red wave to come in Georgia. 

With only days left until the Georgia Gubernatorial election, there are two possible outcomes. Either Kemp will successfully defeat Abrams for the second time, proving his merit as Governor and a savvy politician. Or Abrams’ intensely driven and fervent push for greater voter protection, registration, and turnout efforts will reward her with a slim, but incredibly historic victory in the Peach State of Georgia.