Democrats Hope to Buck Expectations in this Year’s Hotly Contested Midterms
Election results of the 2020 election as they were reported state-by-state.
As the 2022 midterm elections approach, with rising inflation, the overturn of Roe v Wade, and the aftermath of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, Democrats hope to make the most of these unprecedented times and hold control of both houses of Congress.
Historically, the party in power loses control of one or both houses of Congress in a typical midterm election year, since midterms often function as a referendum on the party in power. Voters do not typically prefer one-party control for a long time, preferring divided government in the hopes that this will lead to compromise.
However, This midterm year is anything but typical. With Covid-19 cases on the decline but still persisting, rising inflation, and abounding culture wars, the midterms were once shaping up to be a referendum on the Biden era of government, with it looking like Democrats would lose big in both houses of Congress. But, over the summer, the prospects started to shift. Gas prices began and continue to fall – something that had been plaguing President Biden’s approval rating. The Supreme Court released its landmark decision overturning Roe v Wade and hinted at possible reversals of decisions regarding same-sex marriage, contraception, and the overturn of anti-sodomy precedent. Congressional Democrats finally passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a reconciliation bill meant to lower healthcare costs and offer targeted subsidies that would aim to slash greenhouse gas emissions. This finally gave Democrats issues to galvanize their base with, proving that the party can get big policies done even when they control Congress by only the slimmest majority.
Now, experts have changed their predictions on who will control each chamber of Congress after the midterms this November, with the Democrats slightly favored to hold the Senate and Republicans still slightly favored to take control of the House of Representatives. Republicans have a built-in advantage in the House of Representatives due to gerrymandering. The GOP has 211 districts in their favor (only seven away from a House majority of 218), while the Democrats only have 194 rated in their favor. There are 211 districts rated as likely Republican, 194 rated as likely Democrat, and 30 rated as toss-up.
Democrats might hold their current edge in the Senate by having a favorable map, with states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for pick-up opportunities. President Biden even won Pennsylvania in 2020. Additionally, they only have to defend states like Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona – all of which were won by President Biden. On the other side, Republicans appear to be suffering from a candidate quality problem. Candidates Herschel Walker’s recent abortion scandal in Georgia, the NRSC scrapping ads for candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona, and JD Vance trailing Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate Race even though President Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2020 all spell trouble for the Republican party.
While most experts predict a better showing in the House of Representatives for Republicans, recent special election results suggest otherwise In NY-19, Pat Ryan, a Democrat, outperformed President Biden’s 2020 results in a special election and won the Republican-leaning district by focusing the race on abortion rights – a culture war issue Democrats have the winning position on (61% of Americans support legal abortion). In Alaska, a deep-red state that recently implemented the new system of ranked-choice-voting, Democrat Mary Peltola – the first Alaska Native to be elected to Congress – was able to win the state’s at-large House District in a special election against former Alaska Governor and Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Republican Nick Begich. She accomplished the victory by making the race about local issues and driving home her fervent support for abortion rights.
Democrats have a path to victory in a year where odds should be stacked against them. They can continue to successfully attack the faulty candidates Republicans have chosen to run in these competitive Senate races. While doing that, they can also demonstrate to voters that they are the party that can be trusted to run the government responsibly and protect a woman’s right to choose. If they can follow this path, they may buck expectations after all.