President Biden Led a Messy Evacuation from Afghanistan: Now What?

President Biden shares remarks about the end of the war in Afghanistan from the White House. Source: AP News/Evan Vucci

The United States ended the longest war in its history last Monday when the final American soldiers in Afghanistan were evacuated. The U.S. had maintained a military presence in the Middle Eastern nation following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Former President George Bush began the war when he ordered an invasion of Afghanistan in order to hunt down Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind Al-Qaeda. 

Donald Trump finalized a deal with the Taliban, a longtime Al-Qaeda confidant, following months of negotiating in February 2020. This deal can be cited as one of the first steps to remove American military presence from Afghanistan altogether.  The agreement, which notably excluded the Afghani government in Kabul, saw the U.S. promise to withdraw from the country in May of 2021. In exchange, the Taliban promised to refrain from attacking American soldiers and harboring terrorists. 

Upon entering office, Biden pushed back the withdrawal goal to the more symbolic date of September 11 while affirming that he was still committed to ending the war in Afghanistan, a move popular with most Americans. The President claimed that Trump’s deal with the Taliban left him with only two choices: “ramp up” U.S. involvement in Afghanistan or leave.  However, many critics say that Biden had more agency in the situation, pointing to other Trump-era policies the current President has now ended. Nevertheless, Biden aimed to evacuate the 2,500-3,500 American troops and over 70,000 American citizens in Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, a goal which became a reality — not without a lack of controversy, however.

Following a withdrawal that many viewed as too hasty and which saw the death of thirteen US servicemen, Biden’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest number since he entered the White House. Only 43% of Americans are currently in favor of the job that the President is doing. Perhaps more importantly, independent support for Biden has slid ten points to 36%, reflecting weakness in a key swing group for the President. Veterans are split in their reaction to the decision to leave Afghanistan, but most agree that the withdrawal was handled poorly. Globally, many countries have joined in the chorus of critics who believe that the withdrawal was not executed well, especially the United Kingdom, a country that heavily supported U.S. operations in Afghanistan.

Going forward, Biden will look to convince voters that he is still as empathetic and competent as he claimed to be during his campaign. One potential avenue is the settling of hundreds of Afghan refugees displaced by the conflict. 73% of Americans support allowing Afghan refugees to find homes in the United States, a shocking number compared to the relatively low amount of historical U.S. public support for refugee admission. If Biden can effectively capitalize on this popular policy goal by establishing an efficient method for resettling these refugees, he could see a boost in his approval rating.

In terms of foreign policy, the ending of the war in Afghanistan gives credibility to the idea of a burgeoning Biden doctrine focused more on combatting domestic terrorism and China instead of foreign terrorist groups like ISIS and the Taliban. This shift would mark a departure from the primary foreign policy objective of numerous Presidents for the last two decades. Biden will likely shift his focus now to dealing with China and Russia, both in the hopes of scoring a desperately needed win for his administration and in order to align U.S. actions abroad with his “America is Back” messaging.

Relating to China, it is likely that the Biden administration will need to shift its focus to Taiwan in the coming months. Perhaps fueled by Chinese propaganda calling out U.S. “weakness” following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Tsai Ing-wen highlighted the need for more Taiwanese self-reliance in ensuring security, with less help from America. However, many critics have stated that it is unfair to compare the Afghanistan withdrawal to potential events in Taiwan. No matter the case, the White House will undoubtedly have to clarify its position with Taipei as it shifts its focus towards competing with China on the global stage.