Tensions Between the U.S. and China Reach Historic Levels Following Afghanistan Withdrawal

Chinese President Xi Jinping [left] and U.S. President Joe Biden [right]. Source: FT

US-China relations are “as bad as [they have] been since Tiananmen,” according to an expert at UC San Diego. Why are analysts comparing the current relationship between China and the U.S. to that following the Chinese government’s murder of thousands of citizens? Tensions between D.C. and Beijing have risen dramatically in recent years.

In 2018, Trump levied almost $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods following a U.S. investigation into unfair business tactics allegedly aimed at asserting Chinese superiority in technology. Less than three months later, the U.S. announced another $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. China was quick to retaliate by introducing its own tariffs on U.S. goods valued at the same amount. Over the next year, the trade war only intensified. The United States cited Chinese military aggression in the South China Sea and espionage as its reasoning for prolonging the economic conflict. As tensions increased, Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. The passage of the bill signaled strong support for autonomy in Hong Kong, angering Chinese officials. 

As 2020 began, so did the COVID-19 pandemic. The United States and China both blamed the outbreak on the other, while Trump branded the disease “the Chinese virus.” Following U.S. accusations of Chinese espionage, the two countries both closed consulates in Chengdu and Houston. As Trump prepared to leave office, his Director of National Intelligence called China “the greatest threat to America today.”

Conflict only continued under the Biden presidency. In a display of what was to come, the current Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that China “poses the most significant challenge of any nation-state to the United States” during his Senate confirmation hearing. Biden soon decided to prolong Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Those taxes are still in place today.

Another major concern of the U.S. is the treatment of the Chinese Uyghur population. The Trump administration called the treatment of Uyghurs in China “genocide,” and Antony Blinken agreed with the designation. He then went further by referring to Uyghur internment camps as “concentration camps.” Spurred by this and other concerns from the Biden administration, NATO officially laid out threats posed by China in a communiqué issued after the G7 Summit. 

Following the snowballing mess that is the relationship between the two global superpowers was the United States’ messy withdrawal from Afghanistan. Chinese officials jumped at the opportunity to cite the evacuation as proof that U.S. superiority is a “myth.” These claims were especially targeted towards Taiwan. The Communist Party of China’s state-run newspaper published articles suggesting that events in Taiwan would mirror those in Afghanistan should they attempt to secede from the One-China agreement.

The Biden administration has worked to strengthen partnerships with allies that it believes will be beneficial in combating Chinese influence. The United States, Japan, Australia, and India have increased activity within their partnership, The Quad, due to growing Chinese aggression. Within the last week, the US, UK, and Australia announced a new security partnership under the acronym AUKUS. The partnership announced that it will work to equip Australia with nuclear submarines, a largely unprecedented action for the US. The global community largely interpreted this move as a way to further protect AUKUS’ interests in the Indo-Pacific against China.

Going forward, it is likely that China will not aim to replace the U.S. in Afghanistan. Beijing has recently slowed investments in other countries through its Belt and Road Initiative. This is indicative of the country’s waning appetite for investing in less developed countries that will not guarantee a return. It is also doubtful that China will look to engage the United States in a military capacity. Analysts have suggested that the Eastern nation will instead look to increase its global influence through economic means. However, China will continue to expand its military presence in disputed regions of the South China Sea.

Nearly half of Americans view China as the greatest foreign threat to the nation. This represents the highest number in decades and is more than double the statistic in 2020. In a time of intense American polarization, it is telling that the stances of the Trump and Biden administrations on China have been strikingly similar. Given these metrics, it is doubtful that Biden will look to resolve the conflict if it means bending to President Xi Jinping’s will — or if he believes that the American public will perceive it that way.