Crisis in Guinea: Can Democracy Emerge or Will Authoritarianism Return?

Troops in Guinea have imposed a curfew and suspended the Constitution. Source: Wall Street Journal

A military junta seized power in Guinea on September 5, 2021, deposing and arresting President Alpha Conde. The military has established a temporary governing apparatus called the National Rally and Defense Committee (CNRD) [Original French: Comité national du rassemblement et du développement], led by Special Forces Officer Mamady Doumboya. Doumboya has dissolved the Guinean Constitution, all institutions, including the national and prefecture-level government, established a nationwide curfew and closed all land and air borders. 

The Conde administration was marred by reports of widespread corruption and fraud, peaking during last year’s Presidential Election. Conde won after pushing through a referendum rewriting the Guinean Constitution to allow himself to exceed the established term limits and run for President again — sparking massive protests throughout the nation, as people decried his actions as authoritarian and unconstitutional. These protests culminated in the outbreak of violence, resulting in over 30 deaths. Conde’s two previous electoral victories were also disputed, with widespread allegations of fraud and rigging. 

Doumboya stated that the military takeover is an attempt to restore political power to the Guinean populace and take it from corrupt politicians. He expressed a desire to construct a new constitution, even demanding that outgoing government officials meet with the CNRD. These actions could point towards potential democratic reforms, although Guinea has previously struggled to construct a functional democracy. Conde was the first democratically-elected President in the nation’s history, coming after a string of military dictators who succeeded the French colonialists; however, his rule was essentially authoritarian. During Conde’s rule, the Guinean people suffered bans on peaceful assemblies and internet shutdowns, as well as harsh repression of dissent; Amnesty International found that over 100 peaceful protestors were killed during the last two years of Conde’s regime. No elections have been announced for the nation, and, historically, coup d’états have a low chance of producing a transition to democracy. Cellou Dalein Diallo, the Guinean opposition leader, has stated that he would be open to participating in a transitional government but has not yet been invited. The CNRD has declared that they will conduct a broad consultation before forming a transitional government, but has yet to announce any concrete moves towards re-establishing democracy.

Guinea is the world’s largest producer of bauxite, an essential material for aluminum production. The coup d’etat brings with it an immense concern that production will be disrupted — however, reports state that bauxite production has continued unhindered. Regardless of the political future of Guinea, the nation faces several endemic issues. Despite significant natural resources, such as bauxite and untapped iron ore reserves, the nation is wracked by widespread poverty and unemployment. Youth unemployment is exceptionally high, reaching nearly 60%, which produces a higher risk of violent outbreaks, as seen in several other nations in the Sahel. Guinea is also divided amongst several ethnic minorities, as no group is larger than 33% of the population. Ethnic polarization has influenced previous elections, which are claimed to have been rigged against the Fulani, Guinea’s largest ethnic group. This ethnic conflict threatens to break out into violence, as has happened in neighboring Mali.  

The overthrow of the Guinean government has received a mixed response across the globe. The military takeover has garnered widespread condemnation from the international community. However, reports and videos of Guineans cheering military vehicles and engaging in celebratory behavior in Conakry, the capital, have surfaced. African regional organizations have taken a middle-of-the-road approach. The African Union has suspended Guinea’s membership but has not taken any more substantial steps, such as sanctions. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) leaders state that they are assessing the situation and have requested that Conde be released from prison. ECOWAS has not requested he be reinstated; instead, they hope CNRD appoints a civilian prime minister. 

Additionally, the organization has not threatened sanctions, though Guinea’s ECOWAS membership has been suspended. This coup d’etat follows similar ones in the West African nations of Mali and Chad, continuing a worrisome trend of democratic backsliding in a region that had made progress towards stability. Military takeovers, and regime changes in general, are very fluid situations, and Guinea will likely undergo significant changes in the coming weeks. Guineans hope that these changes bring the nation onto the path it has been searching for since gaining independence — democracy.