US Intelligence Report Highlights Threats from China, COVID, Climate Change & Tech

A new intelligence report from the US reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to reorganize the existing world order as we continue to confront a myriad of crises. Source: Aaron Favila/AP

This year’s Annual Threat Assessment, published by the United States Intelligence Community on April 9, outlines numerous threats concerning China’s push for global power; provocative actions from Russia, Iran and North Korea; emerging technology and organized crime; migration and global terrorism; and general conflicts and instability in regions across the globe, but specifically mentioning Afghanistan and India-Pakistan.

In the coming months and years, the US’s relationship with China; the resolution of the COVID-19 pandemic; the increasingly changing climate and emerging technology; and cyber capabilities will be at the forefront of American foreign policy decisions under the Biden administration. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has only exacerbated challenges in US-China relations due to the Trump administration’s trade war and COVID-19’s origins within China. The intelligence report states that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue to spread its influence, while inciting division between the US and its allies. The CCP views its early ability to contain COVID-19 as evidence of a coming geopolitical power shift towards China specifically and Asia broadly. China will continue to broaden its influence through its Belt and Road Initiative, especially through vaccine diplomacy. China will continue to emphasize new international norms that focus on political and economic stability with state sovereignty over the Western-emphasized individual rights. 

The intelligence report predicts that COVID-19 will have economic effects that exist for the coming years, and notes that the economic conditions have the potential to worsen or create instability in many countries. For developing countries that rely on tourism or remittances, the effects of COVID-19 are expected to last much longer. Already, the number of people experiencing food insecurity in the US has doubled over the course of 2020 due to the pandemic. Lastly, COVID-19 has hurt essential health services in low-income countries like child and maternal health programs, and HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention programs. Americans and other populations remain vulnerable to new disease outbreaks as risk factors like unplanned urbanization, expansion of international travel and trade and public mistrust of government and healthcare workers persists. 

2020 was tied with the hottest year on record, and the threat of climate change will continue to intensify due to growing global energy usage and increasing emissions. Warming air, land, and sea temperatures increase the likelihood of more extreme and frequent weather events like heat waves, droughts and floods. Beyond extreme weather, the degradation of soil, water and biodiversity resources are bound to threaten institutional infrastructure mechanisms that provide clean water, food, health resources and security. 

The intelligence report notes emerging tech as a potential threat because US leadership in technology is already being threatened by China. The report mentions that a more level playing field with China in tech can be beneficial, but could also destabilize the economic, military, and social advantages of the United States. Additionally, cyber warfare presents a new medium through which to threaten and attack the United States without the traditional costly infrastructure of a military. Beyond attacks to steal information, influence populations and damage industry, there is also a fear that illiberal and authoritarian regimes will use cyber technology to surveil and manipulate their citizenry. 

While all of these threats are not to be taken lightly, the grandest threat must be climate change and environmental degradation, for without a sustainable environment none of the other potential threats will matter. Additionally, bilateral issues with other nations, especially nations with nuclear capabilities, create a definite threat, but these issues will only be exacerbated if there is competition over natural resources such as clean water and food. Confronting climate change is a collective problem for the world, and cannot be handled by only a couple of nations agreeing to reduce their emissions. Tackling climate change must be at the top of the agenda for not only the Biden administration, but also the world as a whole in order to preserve our shared home. All other issues of foreign policy exist with the assumption in mind that states can still function — but climate change threatens the ability of states to provide any political goods to their citizens to act as a functioning state.