Iran, US Cooperation Unlikely as Tit-for-Tat Airstrikes Continue

Israeli F-15 fighter jets escort an American B-52 bomber through Israeli airspace on March 7, 2021. Source.

A new round of rocket strikes on the U.S. backed Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq prompts questions of how the Biden administration will respond to growing hostilities with Iran. On March 3rd at least 10 rockets hit the airbase, inducing a heart attack that killed a U.S. contractor. This attack is part of a broader tit-for-tat cycle after an Iranian attack in mid-February on a U.S. base in Northern Iraq that killed one and injured six. The U.S. responded two weeks later by dropping two 500-pound bombs on Iranian backed militias in Syria. Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby called the U.S. response an “an unambiguous clear message to anyone in the region about what the stakes are if you're going to continue to conduct attacks on our people." The latest rocket strikes constitute Iran’s immediate response. 

The Britain Ambassador to Iraq and the Foreign Minister of Denmark joined the U.S. in condemning the attacks. There were two Danes at the airbase at the time of the attack.

Then, on March 7th, the U.S. flew two of its B-52 bombers over the Middle East, and were accompanied by aircraft from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar through each country’s respective airspace. This show of allied force was a signal to Iran of the dangers of continuing to bomb U.S. and Iraqi military bases and continued acceleration of its nuclear enrichment program. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has not ruled out a retaliatory strike “if that’s what we think we need to do, at a time and place of our own choosing. We demand the right to protect our troops.”

Since the Trump Administration’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran Deal) in 2018, tensions with Iran have soared particularly throughout the summer of 2019. In the spring, the U.S. implemented strict sanctions of Iranian exports of oil, a critical export. Throughout the summer, Iran attacked multiple oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and shot down a U.S. drone which it claimed was in Iranian territory, the U.S. denying the allegation saying it was shot down over international waters. In retaliation the U.S. destroyed an Iranian drone. The summer culminated in an Iranian seizure of a British tanker and attack on Saudi energy infrastructure. The Trump Administration responded with a series of sanctions. 

Tensions flared again in December when the U.S. accused Iran of moving missiles into Iraq. On December 27th, an American contractor was killed by a rocket strike on an Iraqi base which the U.S. responded by firing on Hezbollah militia members. On December 31st, the American embassy in Baghdad was attacked and the outer edges set on fire. Finally, the U.S. conducted an air strike that killed the top Iranian general, Qasem Solemiani on January 3rd, 2020. The continued escalation of nuclear enrichment and bombings are set against this backdrop of conflict. 

Iran made its first 2021 announcement of increased enrichment activities on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death and has continued to increase its uranium purification operation at its Natanz plant. The Biden Administration would like to return to a negotiated deal similar to the JCPOA that the Obama administration had signed with Iran. However, Iran has rejected renewing even informal negotiations without sanction relief. President Biden has stated publicly that he will refuse to lift sanctions until Teheran stops its uranium enrichment and returns to compliance with the treaty’s initial enrichment limits. It remains to be seen if either will be willing to give anything to bring the other to the table or if the cycle of escalation will be broken.