Coup d’Etat in Sudan: How Did This Happen? And What’s Next?

General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan speaks during a press conference on October 26, 2021 following the coup. Source: Arab News

On October 25, 2021, the Sudanese military dissolved the transitional government that had been put in place after the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for nearly three decades. This move comes two years after the Sudanese army overthrew al-Bashir in 2019. After Bashir’s removal, the Sudanese people hoped to find stability in a nation wracked by war, poverty, and crisis for much of the 21st century. The military initially intended to construct a ruling junta; however, widespread protests forced them to agree to a transitional power-sharing agreement. The agreement declared that the Sudanese army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the civilian components of the Sudanese government would form a transitional council, known as the Sovereign Council, to rule Sudan. With Burhan acting as de facto head of state, the military would lead the council for 21 months beginning in July 2019, followed by civilian control of the council for the following 18 months. After these 39 months had passed, Sudan planned to hold independent elections and function as a full-fledged democracy. 

Relations between the military and civilian components of the Sovereign Council were tenuous throughout the two-year history of the Sovereign Council. This tension reached its apex as political leaders and the Sudanese people pushed Burhan to agree to surrender power to the civilians in the Sovereign Council by November 17, 2021 — in an attempt to keep with the original agreement. Instead, Burhan and the Sudanese military staged a coup d’etat on October 25. Burhan dissolved the Sovereign Council, detained Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, removed several state governors and government officials, and suspended several articles of the Sudanese Constitution relating to the powers and makeup of the transitional government. The International Community has primarily denounced the coup d’etat. The U.N, U.K, U.S, and the E.U. have all called for Sudan to restore the Sovereign Council and continue the path towards democracy. Despite their words, the U.N. has not chosen to take any action against the Sudanese military. This inaction disappointed Sudanese foreign minister Mariam Al-Sadiq, who stated: “that she expects ‘genuine action’ from the UN security council on Sudan's military following the takeover.” The United States paused roughly $700 million of emergency assistance allotted for Sudan. 

Regionally, the change in the Sudanese government threatens to undermine the stability of Northeast Africa. To prevent spillover violence and slow the rash of coup d’états in Africa, the African Union has suspended Sudan. A permanent change in Sudanese governance may significantly impact the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD, a major policy initiative of the Ethiopian government, will, if completed, significantly increase Ethiopian control over the Nile River, and possibly decrease the flow of the Nile into both Sudan and Egypt. Egypt has openly and aggressively campaigned against the completion of the GERD Dam. Though not proponents of the project, the civilian elements of the Sudanese government have not protested vociferously against the Dam. The new military leadership in Sudan is believed to be much more opposed to the GERD; for this reason, Egypt favors the Sudanese military’s coup d’etat. On the opposite side of them, Ethiopia is an ardent proponent of civilian governance in Sudan, believing that it creates a better chance to complete the GERD. The coup d’etat could see both Egypt and Ethiopia interfere in Sudan to support their preferred government, further destabilizing Sudan and enveloping Egypt and Ethiopia in a conflict. Additionally, the Ethiopian government has expressed concern that the Sudanese military will involve itself in the Ethiopian Civil War and support the Tigrayans against the Ethiopian central government. 

The Sudanese people have been avowedly in favor of a civilian government, and such beliefs have not changed in the aftermath of the coup d’état. Massive numbers of Sudanese citizens have taken to the streets in protest of Burhan’s takeover. These protests have already begun to turn violent; at least 11 protestors have been killed and over 140 injured since the coup d’etat. 

Demonstrations against the military’s role in government have been constant since the overthrow of Bashir in 2019. They are unlikely to stop unless Burhan returns power to the civilian elements of the government. Violence against civilians is likely to continue and could provoke yet another humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa, joining neighboring Ethiopia. 

Although the Sudanese prime minister was released from detainment, Burhan has shown no interest in restoring the Sovereign Council. Burhan claims to be a proponent of democratic governance and insists that the civilian component of the council was “threatening peace and unity” in Sudan. Burhan stated that “he would hold elections in July 2023 and hand power to an ‘independent and fair representative government’ then.” Without any international action to restore the Sovereign Council, the Sudanese people’s only hope for democracy is that Burhan is honest, which very few people believe.