A Tightly Contested Governor’s Race in Virginia Promises Insights for National Politics

Former governor Terry McAuliffe (left) faces off against Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin (right) in this year’s election to decide Virginia’s next governor. Source: Cliff Owen/AP Photo

The Virginia gubernatorial race is much more than a contest to decide the next governor of The Old Dominion. The state holds its governor's election in the year immediately following every presidential election, making it a de-facto referendum on the current federal administration’s performance and a potential indicator of future national trends. According to a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, “Every gubernatorial election in Virginia is seen as a leading political indicator. How the parties do in Virginia's governor's race, the year after a presidential election, is seen as a harbinger of how the parties will do in the midterm elections.”

This year, former governor Terry McAuliffe (D) and former co-CEO Glenn Youngkin (R) are engaged in a tight race to become the top official in Virginia. Due to an interesting quirk in Virginia’s constitution, current governor Ralph Northam (D) will not be able to seek reelection. That is because Virginia is the only state in America which disallows consecutive gubernatorial terms. The reasoning for this policy dates back to colonial times, when Virginians saw governors as the primary executors of British power. Due to their distrust of the royalty, Virginians created a weak governor’s position in drafting their state constitution.

Now, Terry McAuliffe seeks to serve as only the second person since the Civil War to win a second term as governor of Virginia. McAuliffe previously held the seat from 2014 to 2018. Back in June, McAuliffe easily rolled over his more progressive challengers to win the Democratic primary election. The moderate Democrat is running a campaign with focuses in addressing education issues, aggressively raising the minimum wage, protecting access to abortions, and banning assault weapons.

McAuliffe’s Republican challenger is Glenn Youngkin, a former co-CEO of private-equity giant Carlyle Group. Youngkin has never held nor run for political office. Estimates of his net worth range from upwards of $300 to $440 million. Youngkin is putting his money where his mouth is, spending millions on his campaign through loans and other contributions. 

Republicans are hopeful that Youngkin will be able to snap their decade-long losing streak in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. He has received official endorsements from notable Republicans including Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. However, some are afraid that endorsements such as these could hurt Youngkin in a state that voted against Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

Perhaps in response to these fears, Youngkin has increasingly sought to distance himself from former president Trump in recent months. The former co-CEO finally stated that he would have voted to certify the 2020 election result after a lengthy period of ambivalence on the issue. Furthermore, Youngkin described the actions of attendees at a right-wing rally as they recited the Pledge of Allegiance in front of a flag flown at the Capitol riot in January as “weird and wrong.”

The Republican candidate’s policies can largely be described as moderate in today’s political climate, favoring tax cuts, abortion restrictions, voter ID, and laws that support law enforcement. Youngkin has also vowed to fire the Virginia Parole Board, which was recently found to have neglected proper guidelines before releasing inmates.

Ever since Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia’s electoral college votes since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, state politics in The Old Dominion have been characterized by a pivot to more liberal policies. Since Obama carried the state in 2008, Virginia has voted in favor of the Democratic presidential candidate in every election cycle. In 2019, Democrats won control of both the state House and Senate, allowing them to pass numerous policy items. In just the past two years, the General Assembly has enacted legislation to increase gun control, reform the police, legalize marijuana, and raise the minimum wage.

Virginia’s “blue wave” now faces a tough challenge as the governor’s race tightens. Major polls show McAuliffe leading by an extremely small margin, one that has decreased as the election progresses. Biden’s lacking approval rating has hurt McAuliffe, importantly stripping away vital votes from Independents.

Youngkin has slightly more overall funding for his campaign, largely due to the massive amounts of his own capital that he has invested in the race. In total, Youngkin has loaned his campaign over $16 million, making up almost half of his total campaign reserves.

The outcome of this race will have important implications for federal midterm elections and other state elections across the country. Democrats want to know if voters will still show up to the polls without the anti-Trump fire of 2020 lit under their base. Republicans will look to Virginia to predict how easily they might be able to flip the House and Senate in next year’s midterm elections. The country as a whole will get the chance to see how issues such as critical race theory, the minimum wage, and abortion will factor into future elections.