Germany’s Election: New Parties, Old Problems
Angela Merkel (in turquoise) alongside her party’s leader, Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union. Source: Politico
As the polls closed, Germans awaited what may be their most monumental election in the post-WWII era. The election not only ends the 16-year chancellorship of Angela Merkel, the informal “the leader of the free world”, but also the long reign of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Besieged by corruption scandals and leadership conflicts, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), narrowly lost to the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Now, the SPD and the CDU seek the support of smaller parties, striving to form a coalition. This zero-sum game will not only revolutionize Germany’s political landscape but also the country’s role as a burgeoning world power amidst a declining Pax Americana.
The loss of the CDU marks a political reckoning in Germany: one where post-WWII parties are on the decline in the era of post-materialism. Indeed, the post-war generation is the first generation to have more post-materialists than materialists. The SPD and their deputy leader, Olaf Scholz, heavily targeted their platform towards this change. Supported by a base of labor unions, social reformers, and working-class citizens, the center-left party won on a platform of minimum wage increases and wealth taxes. Resonating among a COVID-battered economy, Germans swung heavily towards the SPD, providing them 25.7% of the vote. Many of those votes came from the CDU, the party of Angela Merkel. While Merkel retains high approval ratings, her party lost its luster under her successor, Armin Laschet, who voters called “uninspiring.” His mantra of fewer taxes, tighter asylum policies, and market approaches to climate change fell on deaf ears, especially in a populace alarmed by economic inequality, climate change, and the plight of refugees. Such a political chasm led to the party only capturing 24.1% of the vote — marking their worst result in modern history.
Outside of the SPD and the CDU, other parties ventured into political legitimacy, notably the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Once a fringe party characterized by environmental hippies and counter-culture, the Greens campaigned on decarbonization and renewable energy. But, a changing political climate uplifted the Greens, as 47% of Germans — the highest percentage by far for any voter concern — declared that the environment was the most exigent problem facing Germany. Subsequently, the Greens captured 14.8% of the vote, a 5.9% increase from the last election cycle. On the opposite side of the ideological spectrum, the Free Democratic Party, championing lower taxes, free-market reform, and libertarian social policies, won 11.5% of the vote.
The country's multi-party system makes it rare for a single party to win an absolute majority, necessitating coalitions. A dominant party must negotiate for the support of minor parties to form partnerships in the Bundestag, the national parliament. Negotiations include finding common ground on policy priorities and compromising over ministry posts. If their coalition secures a majority of seats, the coalition will support the dominant party’s candidate for Chancellor, who becomes the Chancellor of Germany if the parties vote in unity. Currently, a ‘traffic light’ coalition, termed after the colors of the SPD, FDP, and the Greens, appears most likely. Such a coalition would place the CDU in the opposition for the first time since 2005.
Whether CDU or SPD, any dominant party must manage long-standing issues in German politics, notably climate change and coronavirus. In climate change, Germany aims to become carbon-neutral by 2045. The next Chancellor would inherit the burden of transforming pledge into policy. Additionally, the next Chancellor must address the elephant in the room: the coronavirus pandemic. Germans have faced three waves of COVID-19 in the last year and a half, leaving the population weary of lockdowns and restrictions. The next leader must straddle a delicate balancing act: upholding public health and understanding public fatigue.
However, most media coverage focuses on Germany's foreign policy, because Germany leads as the de-facto figurehead of the European Union. Yet, the nation's foreign goals clashed with the consensus of the European Union on the issue of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The controversial pipeline doubles the amount of Russian natural gas to Germany, allowing Russia to weaponize its exports. This ‘natural gas diplomacy’ alarms eastern nations in the EU, including Poland and Lithuania, who commonly experience Russian aggression on their borders. The next German leader must assure that Russia retains no leverage over Germany, placating not only the EU but also the United States. Amidst a new multi-polar world, the United States is looking for allies against the rise of a cunning Russia and a dictatorial China. Specifically, Biden has targeted Germany, a traditional ally of the US.
After this election cycle, Angela Merkel — Germany’s ‘Mutti,' or mother — departs, but the nation still needs a caring parent to address long-standing issues during this political cross-road. The future Chancellor, whether hailing from the CDU or SPD, must act with intention. Doing so will not only stabilize Germany’s shifting political landscape, but also their broader role as both the leader of the European Union and possibly, the free world.