The Changing Nature of Counterterrorism

The President specifically identified domestic terrorism as the most urgent national security threat in his national security strategy. The FBI has more than doubled their current domestic terrorism caseload. Source: Insider

Intelligence officials state that domestic terrorism is the greatest national security threat facing the nation; however, this does not mean that the threat of Islamist jihadism is in the past. On the contrary, experts worry that the US’s retreat from Afghanistan could embolden jihadist terrorism. The US retreat may serve as an ideological inspiration to a generation of jihadis. Jihadist ideology is based on following the path of righteousness, which they believe is war. In their viewpoint, military victory confirms that they are on the path of righteousness, and they have God’s support. Thus, significant victories dramatically increase morale.

This was first seen after the 1989 Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, where early jihadists, including a nascent Al-Qaeda, interpreted their victory as an indication that God supported their actions. This interpretation became a mandate to conduct their jihad. Terrorisom experts worry that the US retreat from Afghanistan will inspire a similar phenomenon, as jihadists will interpret it as a sign of God’s support. Still, despite an increase in terrorist morale, the United State’s advanced counterterrorism apparatus makes it near impossible for jihadists, or any foreign terrorist organization (FTO), to plan and execute a large-scale attack on American soil. This has been the case for nearly two decades, as no jihadist entity has successfully launched a large, centrally-planned attack since September 11th, 2001. 

Current jihadist organizations are likely to be consumed by regional violence, or more focused on attacking Middle Eastern targets —  what they call the “near enemy,” and are not currently a major threat to strike the US. ISIS-K, the Bagram Airport bombers, are presently at odds with the Taliban as well as the US. This infighting prevents them from establishing stability and garnering resources, both of which are necessary to execute a massive terrorist attack on American soil. Al-Qaeda and ISIS may gain strength as the US reduces its Middle Eastern footprint, but neither have the resources or capability to strike the US in a significant way.

However, lone wolf terrorists, acting outside of a clear command structure, remain a threat to national security. These terrorists can be limited in attack power, but are significantly harder to stop, as they rarely leave a planning trail. Many of the deadliest recent attacks on US soil in recent years have been perpetrated by lone wolf terrorists, regardless of ideology, including the Pulse Nightclub shooting, San Bernardino shooting, and the El Paso Shooting.

The Pulse, San Bernandino, and El Paso shooters were all born inside the United States, this contributes to the current consensus among national security professionals that domestic terrorism is the top national security threat today. The President specifically identified domestic terrorism as the most urgent national security threat in his national security strategy. The FBI has more than doubled their current domestic terrorism caseload. Domestic terrorism primarily consists of right wing extremism today, but some observers believe that intense political polarization in our society could revive left-wing extremism, which has been dormant in recent decades. It should be noted that this revival of left-wing terror has yet to be realized, though it was named in the US’s Domestic Counterterrorism strategy. 

The contemporary American counterterrorism response will focus on both jihadi and domestic threats, with the latter being the predominant concern. The future of counterterrorism strategy is difficult to predict, though it is likely the US will continue use airstrikes to neutralize or minimize the jihadist threat. The White House has designated countering domestic terrorism the top law enforcement priority and has increased counterterrorism funding to local, state, and federal law enforcement by over 150 million dollars. They are also seeking to designate domestic terrorists with links to foreign entities as FTOs. This would create more avenues for prosecuting domestic terrorists, and allow the US to target their funding. The United States is encountering an ever-changing terrorist adversary, and will continue to adapt and evolve to prevent the growth of both domestic and international terrorism.