Threat of a ‘Trump Party’ Looms Over GOP
Former President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump leave the White House for the last time on Jan 20th, walking to board Marine One. Source.
Donald Trump may have left the White House for sunny Palm Beach County, Florida, but he will not go gently into retirement. Instead, it appears that Trump will rage against the dying of his influence. Reports have leaked that Trump is considering starting his own party, as well as threats of primarying GOP candidates that he feels have wronged him have started to circle. The message is clear: Trump will not roll over and let his party convict him.
Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial for ‘incitement of insurrection’ starts the week of February 8th, and Senate Republicans are increasingly opposing the trial. For the Senate to convict Trump, seventeen Republican senators would need to cross the aisle and vote to convict with Senate Democrats. Some Republicans see this as an opportunity to begin removing Trumpism from the GOP, return the party to its conservative roots, and strongly condemn the riot at the Capitol. Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) holds, “I believe that what is being alleged and what we saw, which is incitement to insurrection, is an impeachable offense. If not, what is?”
Other Republicans are more willing to protect Trump. Nikki Haley, Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations said on Fox News, “What happened on January 6th was not great. Does [Trump] deserve to be impeached? Absolutely not.”
The problem for those who want to convict? Trump’s influence over his base still holds considerable weight. According to the Washington Post, Trump discussed with advisors that the threat of creating a third-party gives him leverage to prevent Republican senators from voting to convict him in the Senate impeachment trial. If Trump followed through on his threat, he could effectively split the Republican party, leading to a nightmare for Sen. Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders. These claims aren’t baseless; a recent poll from the Washington Post and ABC News shows that 60% of Republican voters believe that the party should continue to follow the leadership of Trump after his defeat.
However, Trump hasn’t made any moves to create a third party yet. Two new political action committees (PACs) claiming to be affiliated with the Trump campaign have been disavowed by the former president’s election committee. Donald J Trump for President (DJFTP) released a statement to the Federal Election Commission claiming a new ‘Patriot Party’ PAC was not associated with Trump, “out of concern for confusion among the public, which may be misled to believe that Patriot party’s activities have been authorized by Mr. Trump or DJTFP… when that is not true.” Additionally, a “MAGA Patriot Party National Committee'' PAC has been reported to be falsely claiming affiliation with the Trump campaign.
Even if Trump does not follow through on his threat to start a new party, he is still determined to wage war against those who would not overturn the election in his favor and the few Senate Republicans that may vote to convict. The Trump campaign already has over $70 million in campaign funds stashed to primary Republican opponents. Reportedly in his sights are Gov. Brian Kemp (GA), Rep. Liz Cheney (WY), and Sen. Ben Sasse (NE). The situation is clear: if a Republican official goes against Trump, they will likely be primaried by a well-funded Trump-aligned candidate — a large incentive for Republicans to not convict the former president.
Although we may not be as up-to-date with the former president’s current thinking due to his ban from social media, the recently set up (and unprecedented) “Office of the Former President” will be the new hub for Trump’s political activity. No longer the president, but still a formidable political force, the Republican Party will likely be reckoning with Trump’s influence for years to come.