The Five Key Swing States to Watch for the 2020 Presidential Election
President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden are nearly deadlocked in the polls - just five states could make or break the November 3 election. Source.
As November 3rd inches closer, President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden continue to battle it out for those coveted 270 electoral votes. Check out the five swing states that are poised to make or break the election.
North Carolina: 15 Electoral Votes
North Carolina, once a GOP stronghold, has been a recurring swing state in the previous three presidential elections. In 2016, Trump won North Carolina by a slim 3.6%. This time around, he hopes to strengthen his grasp on the state’s more rural counties while Biden seeks to engage younger voters — however, seeing as many traditional venues for registering voters, like music festivals and campus events, are off the table this year, Biden may be more reliant upon a new, unexpected group of voters: Republicans who turn to him out of frustration with Trump. This will be an interesting trend to keep an eye on as the election progresses and undecided voters are forced to choose a side.
Florida: 29 Electoral Votes
With a margin of only 1.8 percentage points, the gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in the state of Florida is smaller than it has ever been. While Biden maintains a slight lead in the polls, Trump has gained about 4 percentage points since the beginning of July. A Biden lead may come as a surprise, given his underwhelming performance among Latino voters, however, this negative effect is neutralized by Trump’s loss of popularity among senior voters. And with the recent announcement of billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s vow to direct $100 million toward helping Biden clinch Florida, it seems Trump may need his Sunshine State base to show out now more than ever. But do they need him back?
Georgia: 16 Electoral Votes
In the wake of the murders of two unarmed Black men, Ahmaud Arbery and Rayshard Brooks, by white men with ties to law enforcement in Georgia, the state has become one of the nation’s main arenas for the Black Lives Matter movement. Citizens have taken to the streets to participate in huge protests demanding police reform and racial justice. Meanwhile, Trump has been using these protests to appeal to suburban voters with warnings of crime — a strategy that appears to be working. Polls show Trump and Biden going neck and neck, with Trump most recently leading by 1.4%. But in a state with historically low Black voter turnout, the conflict surrounding Black Lives Matter may tip the scales in Democrats’ favor if Biden can produce a more appealing criminal and racial justice plan than Trump’s “tough on crime” rhetoric.
Texas: 38 Electoral Votes
Yes, you read that right. Texas. The political dreams of Democrats across the nation may finally be coming to fruition. Following an initial hiring announcement of six staffers in early August, including a communications director, a state director, and senior advisers, the Biden campaign added an additional 16 staffers to their Texas team on Monday. The campaign does not have teams stationed in every state, so this expansive move may indicate a belief that they have a chance at securing the historically red state and its 38 Electoral College votes. Recent polls would agree, finding Biden within 1.2 percentage points of Trump.
Ohio: 18 Electoral Votes
There hasn't been much polling in the Buckeye State, but judging from the data that has been collected, Trump has gained about 2 percentage points since the beginning of July whereas Biden has lost around the same amount. Trump won the state in 2016, and given its large population of white voters without a college degree — a key demographic in Trump’s 2016 victory — Ohio remains a state in which Trump may come out on top. As such, it comes as no surprise that he’ll be hosting a “Great American Comeback” rally in Swanton on Monday night.
Still, the fate of these five states is little more than speculation. But as more and more of them appear to be leaning left, Trump clearly needs something to put him back in voters’ good graces — an experimental vaccine, perhaps. And if Biden hopes to further secure his chances of victory, he needs to inspire a large turnout in the big cities, particularly among Black voters.
Until the ballots are cast and counted, one thing remains clear: this election is far from over.