Johnson Threatens International Law as Time for a Brexit Trade Deal Runs Out

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson attends a virtual press conference in early September. The PM has recently expressed intentions to subvert the pending Brexit deal between the UK and EU over its stipulations for the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. Source.

Yet another Brexit deadline looms - but this time it looks like the real deal. On the first day of the new year, the post-Brexit transition period will end. The United Kingdom remains in both the EU customs union and single market during this transition period, but on January 2021, either a UK-EU trade deal will be implemented or - in the case of a no-deal Brexit - the UK will be trading on WTO terms.

The UK leaving the EU was unthinkable until the 2010s; now the reality of Brexit is the “biggest setback in decades for… the idea of European unity.” In the aftermath of the eurozone economic crisis, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) - a far-right Eurosceptic party - saw its membership and press coverage skyrocket in 2012 and 2013, culminating in big wins in the 2014 local and European Parliament elections. The Conservative Party was losing support among the far-right and Euroskeptic backbenchers. In what may very well be the most consequential election speech of the 2010s, David Cameron promised to hold an in-out referendum after the next general election if his Conservative Party won a majority. Cameron won big in 2015; the resulting referendum in 2016 was a slim victory for Brexit. The resulting prolonged process of negotiating a withdrawal agreement from the European Union has taken four years, but the UK may still leave with no trade deal.

Under the May government, the UK Parliament rejected three different forms of the Withdrawal Agreement, creating considerable difficulty in finalizing a date for the UK’s departure from the EU. However, with a massive victory ensuring an 80-seat Conservative majority, the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson was able to pass a renegotiated deal through the UK’s Parliament on the 23rd of January, seemingly following through on his campaign slogan to “Get Brexit Done.”

One of the key areas that Johnson renegotiated was the problem of the border between Northern Ireland (NI) and Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 established a frictionless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland in reaction to the violent skirmishes known as the Troubles that took place in the 20th century. Competing groups of Catholic Republicans and Protestant Unionists were both pacified by the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement has been seen as a success because of the reduction in violence - but the removal of NI from the EU single market makes a free border between the two quite difficult. 

However, a deal seemed to have been made under the Withdrawal Agreement ratified this past January. In a new Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, the entire UK comes out of the EU Customs Union as a single customs territory. (Instead of being in the European trade bloc, the UK will be on its own to create customs regulations and negotiate trade deals as it sees fit.) However, Northern Ireland adopts EU Single Market regulations in order to maintain the current soft border with the Republic of Ireland. EU tariffs collected by the UK on behalf of the EU, would be levied on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland that are "at risk" of then being transported into Ireland. While the imposition of tariffs was not ideal - making certain UK imports more expensive in NI - it seemed to subvert the problem of a hard border between NI and the Republic of Ireland.

This plan was satisfactory until a new UK Internal Market Bill was published on September 9th. The initial aims of this bill seem practical, to set up a relatively seamless UK internal market and to ensure all devolved nations are on the same page, such that English barley can be sold to Scottish distilleries and so forth. However, it also grants the UK government the power to override the Withdrawal Agreement’s protocol on the Irish border - a massive breach of international law as it subverts the signed treaty. UK Justice Secretary Robert Buckland has described this as “insurance planning, if you like, a break-the-glass-in-an-emergency provision,” but the bill’s contents have raised considerable eyebrows.

The UK is in a vulnerable position right now, attempting to reach a trade deal with the EU before next year and desperate for favorable trade deals with other partners as a way to mitigate economic losses from Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish First Minister, has claimed this legislation will “significantly increase” the chances of the UK exiting without a trade deal. While UK government sources told the BBC that the Internal Market Bill was "not intended to derail the talks", European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that implementation of the agreed-upon Withdrawal Agreement is a “prerequisite for any future partnership.” 

Looking further out, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has claimed that there would be “no chance” of a new US-UK trade deal if the UK undermines the Good Friday Agreement. The failure to create a comprehensive US trade deal would be a massive blow for Johnson as the U.S. is the largest destination for U.K. exports after the EU and the ability to have better trade with other partners was a major selling point for Brexit.

The new acrimonious dispute over Ireland Protocol has put relations between the UK and the EU at a new low. A ‘no-deal’ Brexit - the worst-case scenario - approaches every day. As backlash rises from opposition parties and rumors of a potential backbencher rebellion swirl, debates on the Internal Market Bill taking place in the House of Commons on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week, and on the Monday and Tuesday of next week will likely turn into a battleground between those who advocate cooperation with the EU and the Johnson government’s unwillingness to budge.