Nuclear Powers Clash as China-India Border Tensions Rise

An Indian army convoy drives along a road in the Himalayan Mountains near the disputed border zone with China. Both sides have rushed tens of thousands of troops into the region over the last four weeks. Source.

Since the Sino-Indian War in 1962, an unofficial 2,100 mile “Line of Actual Control” (LAC) serves as the Himalayan border between China and India. Decades of cooperation in economic matters have brought the countries closer together and stabilized relations despite border disagreement. Over the summer, escalating provocations along the LAC threatened to undo years of confidence building efforts.

In May, India accused the Chinese of sending soldiers and increasing militarization in disputed areas, likely in response to Indian construction near the LAC. Minor skirmishes lead to injuries, but no fatalities until June 15 when the two countries engaged in their first deadly clash in 45 years, fighting with stones and clubs. The two countries quickly came to the table with New Delhi issuing a statement in which they resolved to “peacefully resolve” the situation and “continue the military and diplomatic engagements… to ensure peace and tranquility in the border areas.”

However, on August 29th, Tibetan Special Frontier Force member, Tenzin Nyima, was killed after stepping on a landmine while patrolling the LAC. The Tibetan Special Frontier Force is a particularly sore spot for the Chinese. They were founded as a covert, high altitude paramilitary group of Tibetan refugees who had fought against the People’s Liberation Army and fled Tibet when the Dali Lama was exiled in 1959. They are an ongoing symbol of a seperationist movement the Chinese Communist Party has long sought to suppress. In response to Nyima’s death, India and China each sent tens of thousands of troop reinforcements accompanied by tanks and aircraft into the mountains. 

Despite inflammatory rhetoric, military buildup, and minor skirmishes, no shots had been fired until Tuesday September 8th. New Dehli claims that Chinese troops “fired a few rounds in the air in an attempt to intimidate” and denied allegations of Indian transgression. Beijing denies New Dehli’s claims, blaming Indian troops for the discharged rounds, calling the warning shots “a grave military provocation of a vile character.” Regardless of which country fired first, the escalation marks the first time along the India-China LAC that firearms have been used since the 1970s.

Foreign ministers Subrahmanyam Jaishankar of India and Wang Yi of China met soon after the warning shots were fired. They issued a joint statement, once again pledging to resolve the situation and promote peace and stability. While there is diplomatic agreement to disengage, the situation on the ground remains tense.

The shadow of nuclear war looms large in these border skirmishes in the Himalayas. Two nuclear powers have not gone to war since the Kargil War in 1999 when India and Pakistan fought over their disputed Line of Control in the Himalayas. The countries were able to successfully de-escalate, although White House aides and U.S. diplomats have stated the crisis had the potential to go nuclear. 

Although India’s current conflict is with China and not Pakistan, the parallels between this LAC conflict and the Kargil War are striking. Once again, two historic rivals and nuclear powers are preparing for high-altitude conflict in the Himalayan mountains over unresolved border disputes. As the countries send troops into the mountains, questions loom about whether it's possible for two nuclear armed states to successfully limit conventional war from escalating to nuclear.