Poisoning of Dissident Alexei Navalny shows Putin’s Paranoia
Alexei Nalvany poses at an anti-corruption, anti-Putin protest in Russia last month. Source.
What began as a routine flight from Siberia to Moscow on Thursday, August 20, turned life threatening as Alexei Navalny, leader of the unofficial “Russia of the Future” party and the nation’s most prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin, turned violently ill in mid-air. Navalny was in Siberia to support local opposition politicians. In the airport, he was seen drinking a cup of tea. Early into the flight, he was heard screaming in pain before passing out. Navalny was rushed to a local hospital for treatment where his wife was initially prevented from seeing him and his personal doctor denied access to his medical information. His followers have called these moves politically motivated harassment and a cover up attempt by the hospital staff.
From the very beginning, Navalny’s spokeswoman cried foul, claiming that his cup of tea was poisoned. After his initial treatment in Russia, and after a few holdups, he was transferred to a hospital in Berlin where his doctors confirm that test results indicate poison was indeed the cause. Navalny remains in a coma.
This is not the first time that Putin has been accused of poisoning tea or attacking dissenters outright. Journalist Anna Politkovskaya, activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, politician Boris Nemtsov, and most famously, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko have all been targets of poisoning attempts and/or shootings that have been linked to the Kremlin’s orders.
In the days after the attack, other survivors spoke in support of Navalny. Pyotr Verzilov, who was hospitalized after a poisoning attempt in 2018, went on an independent TV station in Russia. He stated that Navalny’s condition was similar to his own in 2018 and blamed Putin. Marina Litvinenko, a widow of a former secret service agent poisoned on the Kremlin’s orders in 2006, published an op-ed for the Daily Mail saying that her first reaction was “‘Not again.’”
The timing of Navalny’s poisoning provides insight into Putin’s paranoia. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Russia hard, coinciding with economic downturn and unpopular proposed constitutional changes which have caused his approval ratings to drop to new lows. In Eastern Russia, protests continue in the city of Khabarovsk after the elected governor was arrested on trumped up charges. Across the border in Belarus, protests erupted in early August accusing President Alexander Lukashenko of rigging the country’s presidential election. Pro-democracy rallies and calls for free elections are a potentially destabilizing force in Putin’s Russia - a force which Putin has actively tried to suppress.
Protestors in Khabarovsk and Belarus see the parallels between their struggles. Signs have been seen in either country imploring: “Belarus, Khabarovsk stands with you” and “Khabarovsk, Belarus stands with you” respectively. In a live YouTube video on August 13, Navalny addressed the two protests. He called on Russians to learn from Belarus, urging them to “go and defend your rights” and take to the streets to demand changes to the electoral process. His ongoing efforts to expose corruption within the Russian government combined with his popularity makes him a threat to the stability Putin craves.
Nearly a week after Navalny’s poisoning, Putin pledged support to Belarusian incumbent President Yushchenko, saying on state television he has a reserve police force ready to help quell protests across the border. Meanwhile, taking out Navalny helps ensure there will be peace in Russia by hindering the opposition’s ability to rally behind a charismatic leader. One EU diplomat commented on the situation saying, “Putin is scared. He is sending a message to his own people not to try at home what they see on TV from Belarus.”
Multiple factors will contribute to the long-term impact of these events. The West, broadly speaking, has condemned the Nalvany incident as a political poisoning and are asking for an official investigation which Moscow will likely not grant. Putin’s offer to send a police force into Belarus has provoked outrage, particularly in Poland, and could lead to further international condemnation. Internally, the economic impact of the ongoing pandemic will certainly be a determining factor of Putin’s approval ratings, and consequently how secure he feels in his position. Incapacitating Navalny during this time of upheaval might have bought Putin more time, but it remains to be seen how long he can successfully quell dissent.