Where the Democratic Primary Stands After Super Tuesday
The Democratic presidential nominee will almost certainly be former Vice President Joe Biden or Senator Bernie Sanders (Source)
With Super Tuesday now in the rearview, and several candidates having dropped out abruptly before and after, it seems the Democratic primary is finally down a two-person race (apologies to Tulsi Gabbard). As it stands now, former Vice President Joe Biden has a narrow edge on Senator Bernie Sanders, leading by 639 delegates to 564. However, three states have still yet to fully assign their delegates from Super Tuesday, and all of them were primaries which Sanders won by a solid margin. Amongst the three states—Utah, California, and Colorado—there remain over 100 unassigned delegates, meaning that the race could be closer than it seems right now, though it is virtually certain that Biden is the current leader.
The big story from Super Tuesday was the statement performance of Joe Biden, who won 10 of 14 states voting that day. His dominant victory in South Carolina on Feb. 29 helped correct the ship for him, halting the free-fall his campaign had previously experienced in the first three states. Several states which were widely believed to be fairly easy Sanders wins, such as Minnesota and Maine, instead resulted in upset wins for the former vice president. Of particular note is Massachusetts, where Biden was expected to lose to both Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts native Elizabeth Warren by as much as double digits, but instead pulled off a seven point victory. Biden’s excellent showing was likely the result of key endorsements from Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar after both dropped out just before Super Tuesday, and moreover the endorsement of former candidate Beto O’Rourke, which most certainly helped him secure a win in Texas.
In addition to the role the endorsements played in boosting Biden’s campaign, part of the results can be attributed to the lackluster youth voter turnout. The youth vote has been a crucial part of the Sanders’ campaign since his 2016 run, and several key states such as Texas and Massachusetts saw the relative proportion of youth voters shrink compared to the 2016 Democratic primaries. Following uninspiring performances, Bloomberg and Warren also opted to drop out, with Bloomberg endorsing Biden.
The next round of primaries on March 10 includes the swing state of Michigan, which voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Michigan could offer Sanders, who won the state in 2016, a chance to prove that his anti-NAFTA sentiments reflect strongly in Midwestern states which were instrumental to Trump’s 2016 victory. Michigan is the second swing state in this primary season which voted for Trump in 2016, after North Carolina, and it is crucial for Sanders. However, this race could be especially close as the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, recently endorsed Biden.
Come March 17, attention will be on the results of Ohio and Florida—two more states which went Trump in the 2016 General Election. Biden is almost guaranteed to win Florida, with his lead being over 40 points in certain polls. As for the possibilities of a Sanders’ nomination, this means he almost certainly needs to win both Michigan and Ohio to make the case that he in particular could swing the Rust Belt. Biden’s strong performance thus far has put heavy pressure on Sanders to win very soon, or Sanders could be looking at a dying campaign.
On March 15, CNN, Univision and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will host a debate featuring, at the time of publication, only Biden and Sanders. The debate will offer a view of Joe Biden’s current abilities to perform in a one-on-one setting and could give the public an idea of how he could perform against Trump, whose lack of filter has caught many politicians off guard in a televised setting. As for Sanders, expect to see a highly aggressive debate as he attempts to regain the frontrunner status he held just before Iowa. Pending the results of Michigan, this debate will be his biggest chance to make his case.