What the hell happened last night?
The 2020 elections started last night. Source.
In short, a lot.
With no winner declared yet in an extremely close race, Trump tried early Wednesday morning to call for victory while ballots are still being counted. The House of Representatives is projected to remain under Democratic control while Senate seats are still under contest. Democrats have gained a seat in Colorado and lost one in Alabama.
Crucial swing states in this election -- Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania -- have been all but predictable. Trump has a projected victory in Texas and Florida, with votes being paused in Pennsylvania until the morning of November 4th. North Carolina also remains too close to call, as a recent Supreme Court case has allowed for absentee ballots to be accepted until November 12th. As those ballots count for the remaining 5% of the votes in North Carolina, they could very well close the already-close gap between Trump and Biden.
A crucial Democratic gain was that of Arizona, which is the first, and as of 2:20 am ET, it is the only state to have flipped from the 2016 election. What contributed to this switch was that of Latino voters, particularly in populous Maricopa county, which guaranteed a statewide victory who voted heavily for Biden. However, Arizona seems to be the only state where Biden received a strong gain of Latino voters. He underperformed in Latino counties in Texas by 55 points. Starr County, the most Latino county in the United States, had a +60 stronghold in the 2016 election with Hillary Clinton -- now it only has a +5 stronghold, with 98% reporting. Overall, he has underperformed by 30 points in key Latino districts, greatly contributing to his defeat in the battleground states of Texas and Florida.
Fulton County, home to the city of Atlanta and the state’s most populated area has stopped counting mail-in ballots due to a water pipe burst in a room with absentee ballots, but officials claim that no ballots were harmed. All in-person ballots have been counted. Several other pauses and accidents like these echo across the country, with many voting districts not resuming the process of counting votes until, at the earliest, the morning of November 4th. Yet, Trump is still adamant about declaring victory: “Frankly we did win,” he said. “We’ll be going to the Supreme Court. We want voting to stop.” Biden believes that he is “on track to win this election.”
Between the two, a Biden victory is more probable as of the early morning after. Biden flipped the second district in Nevada; meaning that if he wins Wisconsin, Nevada, and either Michigan or Georgia, he will win the election regardless of North Carolina or Pennsylvania. The winning candidate needs 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency and, as of 2:20 am Eastern Time, Biden carries 238 of them with Trump closely behind with 213. These numbers are likely to remain constant over the next few days, as many states have paused counting votes and have not fully reported their results.