Parallels Between the 2016 Election and Now: Is History Bound to Repeat Itself?
The three major party candidates of the last two Presidential elections hold much in common among them. Some fear that this will lead to a repeat of fate in the 2020 election on Tuesday, November 3. Source.
Four years ago, the 2016 Presidential Election was nearing an end and Hillary Clinton was expanding her lead in the polls. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s chances of victory were looking pretty slim. As we know, though, he did win.
Now, as we near yet another close Presidential Election, the question on many Americans’ minds is: can Trump do it again? After all, there are more than a few comparisons to be made between Trump’s 2016 race against Clinton and his current race against former Vice President Joe Biden.
Supreme Court
For starters, both elections fall within the same year of a Supreme Court Justice’s death. In 2016, it was Antonin Scalia. In 2020, it was Ruth Bader Ginsberg. The difference is, this time, the President’s party has the Senate majority. Unlike Obama, who was blocked from replacing Scalia during his last seven months in office, the Trump administration is not a lame duck. In what could be his last two months as President, Trump has managed to successfully confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, securing a 6-3 conservative advantage — half of which he, himself, appointed.
Trump Makes Headlines
But the similarities don’t end there. As NBC News points out, the Access Hollywood tape documenting Trump’s crude comments toward women — the most famous of which details grabbing them by their genitalia — came out 32 days before the 2016 election. The news of Trump testing positive for COVID-19 also came 32 days before the election. Talk about an October Surprise. And, if you weren’t intrigued yet, Biden and Clinton were both ahead by 11 points in the polls at each respective point in history.
Polling Data
Can the polls be trusted, though? The results of the 2016 Presidential Election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following them — on both the state and national level. Drawing primarily from opinion polls, election forecasters estimated Clinton’s chances of winning to be around 70 percent. Since then, many have speculated what could have caused their predictions to be so inaccurate, and while there remains a great deal of speculation, one factor never fails to be brought up: the polls severely underestimated the strength of Trump’s base. But after four years in office, it’s safe to say Trump’s following has made their presence known. Hopefully, this knowledge, plus the fact that there are fewer undecided voters, will help ensure accuracy in the 2020 forecasts.
Third Party Voting
Aside from undecided voters, there’s also third party voters. You likely know the names Gary Johnson and Jill Stein from 2016, but are you familiar with Jo Jorgenson or Howie Hawkins? If not, it might be because unlike 2016, the 2020 Presidential Race has been mostly a two man showdown. Ever since third party candidates won roughly 4-6 percent of the vote in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016 — a chunk of a decent enough size to sway those races — third party voting has been a topic of contention. Some say a third party vote is a wasted vote because it only benefits the leading of the two major party candidates. Others argue that there is no such thing as a wasted vote, claiming it’s theirs to choose what to do with. Regardless of which side of the issue you stand on, the fact of the matter is we won’t know how much third party voters mattered until after the election, but so far, they don’t appear to be playing nearly as important a role as they did in 2016.
Battleground States
The same can’t be said for battleground states, however. A lot of the same states that were in play during the 2016 election are making a similar appearance in 2020. As with most Presidential Elections, the victor may very well be decided by just a few states. There are the usual suspects, called “perennial” swing states, like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Then there are newcomers, like Texas, which, if flipped, would all but secure the presidency for Biden. In 2016, Trump won all four of these states, helping him secure the Electoral College votes he needed to surpass the 270 vote threshold. But just because he secured them once doesn’t mean he will again. In fact, polls show Biden leading in Wisconsin and North Carolina, as well as other swing states like Arizona, Ohio, and Florida.
As such, the election could go either way. And if America learned anything from 2016, it’s to not call an election until it’s truly over.