Why Ethiopia is on the Brink of Civil War
Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Source.
Since 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has held political control of the East African nation. The EPRDF is a coalition of the four parties that represent three majority ethnic groups—Amhara, Oromo, Tigrayan—and a southern coalition. The country is divided into 10 regions and two cities with relatively powerful regional governments. The Tigray people, though only 6% of the population, had significant governmental power through the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) at the national level until the rise of current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the first Oromo prime minister.
Ahmed came into power in 2018 pushing for national unity. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for bringing peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, recent events and inflamed ethnic tensions have brought into question whether or not Ahmed will prove to be a great reformer and statesman or perpetuate a cycle of failed peacemaking in the nation.
When Ahmed came into office, he cracked down on ‘corrupt’ governmental figures and business owners, many of them Tigryan. The EPRDF underwent a change in 2019 when he proposed the merging of the coalition into one party, under the name of the Prosperity Party, to try to unite the regions under a common national identity. Other regional parties have joined the new Prosperity Party, however, the TPLF resisted the merger.
Due to COVID-19 concerns, Ethiopia postponed its parliamentary election that was scheduled for August. However, in September, the Tigray region’s leadership decided to hold elections in defiance of the national government. Ethiopia’s parliament cut funding to the region, further inflaming the tension.
In early November, a federal government military base in Mekele, the capital of Tigray, was attacked. President Ahmed blamed the TPLF. The country declared a state of emergency for six months and the parliament proposed a terrorist designation for the TPLF, with Amed stating that the attack crossed “the last red line." Ethiopia’s parliament voted to give the President power to appoint new officials in the Tigray region as he authorized airstrikes throughout the north.
The international community’s concern over the escalating situation is two-fold. The first is geostrategic and political. As the second largest African state by population and its strategic location in the Horn of Africa, destabilization or violence in Ethiopia could spread to other vulnerable states in the region. The Horn of Africa is a crucial sea lane to the Middle East and lies in close proximity to oil and the Arabian Peninsula.
Most importantly though, a bloody civil war within Ethiopia would be a humanitarian disaster. Just days into the conflict several hundred people have reportedly died in air raids while thousands have fled their homes. Both the Government of Ethiopia’s forces and the TPLF have significant military power. TPLF’s paramilitary force is thought to have up to 250,000 troops with hardware and support from the people in the region.
Historical tensions combined with COVID exasperated economic conditions have brought Ethiopia to the breaking point. The violence itself will devastate lives, villages and potentially an entire region if the tension spreads to surrounding nations.