The Prospect of Violence in the Wake of the 2020 Election
President Elect Joe Biden, left, and current President Donald Trump. Source.
Since the 2016 election, “polarized” has been the adjective of choice used to describe the US’s political climate. After this tense 2020 election, which still seems not to be over, there is a nonzero chance that the nation will see violence. With polls reporting widespread fears of post-election violence and risk groups warning citizens, here is what we know about election violence so far.
According to a study, “hostility to the opposition party and its candidates has now reached a level where loathing motivates voters more than loyalty.” In 2012, 33 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans described themselves as angry at the other’s presidential candidate “most of the time” or “just about always.” In 2016, the percentage of Democrats who said they were this angry at Trump rose to 73 percent, and the percentage of Republicans with that level of hostility toward Hillary Clinton rose to 66 percent.
Besides polarization, Trump and his allies have been adding fuel to the fire over months leading to the election through a narrative of voter fraud. From claiming that Democrats plan to rig the election, to urging his supporters to watch all the thieving and stealing and robbing [Democrats] do” at the polls, voters have been growing suspicious. This narrative has led to sizable online communities that are built around the president and amplify the narrative. One group in support of Trump, the Oath Keepers, hinted that they might resort to violence if Trump loses the election. Besides alleging voter fraud, Trump has declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.
Voters feel the tension. A poll conducted by YouGov found that 56% of voters expect to see "an increase in violence as a result of the election." A UC Berkeley poll shows that 44% believed violence was “very likely” if there were disputes about the election. Another 44% called it “somewhat likely” while only 12% said it was not likely.
The International Crisis Group, a think tank based in Belgium that focuses on preventing deadly conflict around the world, recently issued a report about the U.S. For the first time in its 25 year history, the Group dedicated a special section to report on U.S. election violence. The think tank states that, while Americans are not new to tense elections, the new challenges that we face in this election, such as a President unwilling to peacefully transfer power, are unprecedented and cause for concern. This news is telling.
No election-related violence has been reported yet. With the election having finally decided the winners - Joe Biden and Kamala Harris - we can only hope that the tense atmosphere does not delve into chaos.