Armed Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Reaches Highest Escalation Since 1994

A group of men survey the damage after Azerbaijanian shelling in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed zone between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict, largely along ethnic lines, has reached a fever pitch in the last four weeks. Source.

An ongoing ethnic conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan - a conflict with origins in the period of Soviet Union occupation - has recently intensified in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, setting the stage for further conflict as the animosity increases. 

The conflict came to the fore in the late 1980s when, with the decreasing influence of the Soviet Union and the division of their territory into independent states, the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet republics, was under dispute. This animosity led to conflict between the two countries, specifically over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that, although largely populated by ethnic Armenians, still remains as an internationally-recognized part of Azerbaijan.

In 1988, demonstrations calling for the unification of the Republic of Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh began and the regional parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh declared its right to independence from Azerbaijan in 1991. By 1992, animosities had escalated into a full-scale war, with tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands forcibly displaced. The initial conflict concluded with a ceasefire negotiated in Russia in 1994 and Armenia taking control of the region, but tensions still remained high in the following decades, with renewed hostilities and skirmishes on several occasions in the years since, most notably in 2016. While the region technically remains within the borders of Azerbaijan, it is controlled by a separatist republic that is run by ethnic Armenians and supported by the Armenian government.

In late September, hostilities flared up again, with both sides alleging that some of their biggest cities, locations with large civilian populations, have been attacked by opposing forces as fighting escalated and killed dozens. The last four weeks have been the largest escalation of conflict since the initial war in 1994. 

In the days since the conflict reengaged, various international leaders have called for an end to the fighting, with the leaders of the US, Russia, and France, as co-chairs of the OSCE, releasing a joint statement, stating that they “condemn in the strongest terms the recent escalation of violence along the Line of Contact in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone,” as well as calling for “an immediate cessation of hostilities between the relevant military forces,” and “the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to commit without delay to resuming substantive negotiations.” 

Throughout both the original conflict and in the years since, both sides have been accused of breaches of the Geneva Convention and human rights violations, including accounts of taking hostages, the killings of prisoners of war, and the targeting of civilian populations. 

Various international actors have attempted to intervene and mediate the conflict over the years, with Russia negotiating the ceasefire in 1994, and the Minsk Group, created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and led by the USA, France, and Russia, was created to arbitrate, but thus far no lasting peace has been established. The conflict also poses the risk of drawing in larger political actors, as Turkey has pledged to back Azerbaijan, and Russia has an extended defense pact with Armenia.

As the ongoing, decades-long conflict increases hostilities, with larger military powers invested on both sides and no resolution to the initial issues, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has no apparent end in sight. Given the history of international mediation and the calls for peace by several members of the international community, further talks will be required to bring the animosity and hostilities between the two countries to an end. Without such negotiation and mediation, and the resolution of the issues that initially sparked the conflict, peace is an unrealistic hope for either side.